As Bitcoin enters a new trading week, the market remains in a pivotal zone, currently hovering around $113,450. Recent developments in on-chain metrics, macroeconomic sentiment, and technical patterns are shaping short-term forecasts. Here’s an updated outlook on potential BTC price movement for the week ahead:

Bullish Scenario

If Bitcoin maintains support above $112,950, analysts expect upward momentum to push prices toward $118,600, a key resistance level that has repeatedly capped gains in recent sessions. A clean breakout above that zone could set the stage for BTC to challenge $120,000–$122,500 by week’s end, implying a gain of 5–7.8% from current levels.

Fuel for a rally:

  1. Sustained ETF inflows

  2. Weakening U.S. dollar

  3. Rising whale accumulation on-chain

Base Case (Most Likely Path)

Most models anticipate Bitcoin will consolidate between $114,000 and $119,000, with intraday volatility driven by key data releases and market sentiment. Modest price appreciation of 2–4% could bring BTC to the $115,800–$118,000 range—matching midweek targets from sources like FXEmpire and CoinCodex.This scenario reflects a typical post-rally cooldown with buyers and sellers evenly matched, awaiting stronger macro or crypto-native catalysts.

Bearish Scenario

If Bitcoin loses its footing below $112,950, a drop to the 50-day EMA at $110,600 is likely. Further weakness could expose BTC to $108,000–$105,800, particularly if traditional markets show risk-off behavior or if whale activity increases exchange inflows. Analysts at TradingView have highlighted $105,800 as a major support zone, aligning with the lower Bollinger Band and prior price pivots.

Technical Analysis Snapshot

  1. Support Levels: $112,950, $110,600 (50-day EMA), $108,000

  2. Resistance Levels: $118,600, $120,000, $122,500

  3. RSI (14-day): ~56 – Neutral zone, with slight bullish divergence forming

  4. Bollinger Bands: Price nearing middle band; upper band around $119,500, indicating headroom for upward movement

Key Risks to Watch

Profit-Taking: With BTC recently hitting $119,950, short-term traders may book profits, slowing upward momentum.

Macro Volatility: Any unexpected economic data (e.g., U.S. inflation or job reports) could trigger sharp pullbacks of up to 10%.

Whale Movements: On-chain alerts tracking large BTC transfers to exchanges may signal increased selling pressure ahead.

Conclusion

This week presents a critical test for Bitcoin's resilience. Holding above the $112,950 zone may support a push toward $120K, but downside risks remain if macro conditions deteriorate. Traders should watch for breakouts from the $114K–$118K range to determine whether bulls or bears gain control.