🔥August 1 Market Analysis: Negative Surprises Lead to Bitcoin Dropping to Target Levels!
In the early session, BTC hit a low of 115,000, reaching the previously set key support level. This round of decline was triggered by several macro negative factors:
1. The core PCE inflation in the U.S. for June has warmed up, dampening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year;
2. Trump announced an increase in tariffs on Canada, raising them from 25% to 35%, effective from August 1, 2025, reigniting geopolitical economic friction;
3. Iran has stated that it demands compensation from the U.S. for losses; otherwise, nuclear negotiations will not be resumed, increasing geopolitical risks.
Market risk aversion has intensified, leading to significant damage in the contract market. The well-known trader AguilaTrades faced a liquidation of long positions, losing approximately $40 million, with only $86,000 remaining, becoming a microcosm of the severe volatility in this round of market.
However, it is worth noting that Coinbase updated its Bitcoin holding data today, increasing its holdings by 2,509 BTC in the second quarter, indicating that institutions are still accumulating, and the market's long-term sentiment remains optimistic.
There are currently no obvious anomalies in on-chain data; this round of decline is mainly driven by macro negatives.
Operational Suggestions:
Long-term investors should continue to maintain BTC as the core allocation, suggesting a proportion of over 60%;
For altcoins, a light position is recommended to manage risks;
Other mainstream coins like SOL and BNB can still be monitored, with a strategy of gradual accumulation advisable.
The current market is mainly stable, with significant short-term sentiment fluctuations; pay attention to position control and implement risk management to respond to possible further volatility.
