In yesterday's article, a fan commented asking if there are any varieties worth buying looking forward from now. I thought about it and won’t recommend specific coins but will share a thought: mining old coins!
In this rapidly evolving cryptocurrency world filled with new concepts and narratives, 'old' seems somewhat out of place. However, an increasing amount of data shows that those 'old coins' that have crossed cycles and survived tenaciously are the true accumulators of value. Through a highly enlightening theory—the Lindy Effect—we may be able to re-examine the unique position of 'old coins' in cryptocurrency investment.
What is the Lindy Effect?
The Lindy Effect originates from a statistical observation: the longer a non-perishable item exists, the longer it is likely to exist in the future. It was initially applied to fields such as books, technology, and philosophical ideas, later systematized by Taleb, and widely applied in investment, technology, and complex systems. To understand this, for example, a novel that is popular for a long time has a greater chance of becoming a classic in the future. China's Four Great Classical Novels have been popular for hundreds of years, and time grants them longer vitality in the future.
In the cryptocurrency market, this effect applies similarly. In other words, if a cryptocurrency has survived for more than ten years, it also has a high probability of continuing to survive in the next ten years. The longer it lives, the lower the probability of dying in the future.
The 'coin age profile' of the top 100 tokens by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap.
This was also a sudden idea of mine, utilizing my clumsy Excel skills to statistically analyze the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap, recording the creation year of each project and its 'coin age' (as of 2025). The results are quite interesting:
1. Tokens in the top 100 by market capitalization have an average age of 5.95 years.
2. In the cryptocurrency market, there is a bull-bear cycle every 4 years. According to this cycle, only 14 tokens have an age of less than 4 years, meaning that 86% of tokens are older than 4 years, having experienced at least one complete bull-bear cycle.
3. Among the top 100 by market capitalization, there is only 1 new coin that is less than 1 year old, meaning it accounts for only 1%.
4. There are 60 tokens that have experienced 1 complete cycle but less than 2 cycles, accounting for 60%; there are 22 tokens that have experienced 2 complete cycles but less than 3 cycles, accounting for 22%; and there are 4 tokens that have experienced more than 3 cycles, accounting for 4%.
This ratio closely aligns with a 'hidden rule' in the cryptocurrency market: the crypto industry experiences a bull-bear cycle every 4 years. Only projects that can survive at least one complete cycle may accumulate enough consensus and network effects to become 'hard currency' in the industry.
Why does the Lindy Effect apply to the cryptocurrency market?
1. Crossing cycles means being anti-fragile.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and capital flows very quickly. Only projects that survive in a bear market can truly explode in a bull market. Established coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC have repeatedly gone through cycles of 'rebirth from the ashes', which is exactly the embodiment of the Lindy Effect.
2. Survival time serves as a selection criterion.
A project may disguise its success, but time cannot. A project that has been online for 7 or 10 years means it has gone through countless community turmoil, regulatory shocks, hacking attacks, and macro market upheavals. This 'consensus validated by time' is the most solid moat.
3. Liquidity networks and ecological accumulation.
Coins like Ethereum, Cardano, and Chainlink have ecosystems that far exceed the tokens themselves. They have developers, infrastructure, and applications, forming a true blockchain economy rather than merely speculative targets.
The illusion of 'new coins running rampant': Why do old coins remain more worthwhile to mine?
The market is often attracted by new narratives: AI, DePIN, Restaking, meme coins, RWA... There are indeed many new coins, and the short-term gains are also fierce, but data shows that most new coins struggle to enter and stay in the top 100 mainstream circles. From statistical data, almost all tokens in the top 20 were born before 2020, with very few new coins from 2023 or 2024 entering this level.
This indicates a fact: even if a dark horse occasionally arises, the rise of new coins is extremely difficult, while old coins can maintain their positions in the long term, relying not on popularity, but on structural value.
For ordinary investors, new coins often have high TGE prices. Unless one can participate in the primary market at a very low price, it is difficult to achieve good returns apart from taking over. Alternatively, one could earn through sufficient on-chain technology via on-chain PVP, but this is more relevant to scientists and less so to ordinary people. Older coins have longer histories and more information, making them more suitable for ordinary people to conduct investment research, thus appearing to have higher cost-effectiveness.
Old coin mining strategy: How to profit from the Lindy Effect?
This is a strategic matter, and opinions vary. My thought process is:
First, when conducting fundamental analysis, pay attention to the age of the coin and consider 'survival time' as one of the fundamental references when selecting coins;
Second, in portfolio allocation, choose 'Lindy coins' (for example: BTC, BNB, ETH, XRP, ADA, DOGE, etc.) that have existed for a long time and have a large market capitalization as the main position allocation to diversify risk.
Third, focus on older coins with low market capitalization. By researching the community, development enthusiasm, TVL, on-chain data, etc., discover projects that may return in the future. This carries higher risk and should involve small capital allocation to capture alpha returns.
The essence of investment is to befriend time. The Lindy Effect reminds us that time is not the enemy of crypto assets, but a friend that validates their value. Amid the turbulent tide of narratives, the real opportunities may be hidden in those 'old coins' that have been repeatedly validated by time.
That's all for today, writing this to conclude!!