Recently, two post-00 colleagues in the office made 300U in a day trading contracts.
In our vast crypto market, this profit is really nothing; it's just a small gain.
But it’s hard for a poor ghost with only 1000 yuan not to be tempted!
Think about it this way: take out 100 yuan to play; even if you lose, it’s just 2 days' worth of meals.
Then think about yourself: completely unaware of which coin will rise or when it will fall; playing like this is akin to gambling.
The poor ghost has now awakened to the realization that they cannot bear the risk.
Then this ghost checked the data after waking up.
1. What you see is just the tip of the iceberg.
Behind the 300U profit, there may be multiple experiences of liquidation.
About 75% of retail investors in the contract market lose money within 6 months; this data is disclosed in the annual reports of major exchanges.
2. Recognizing the brutal data of reality.
Bitcoin's volatility in 2023 was about 200%, but 80% of the increase occurred in 7 trading days; missing those 7 days would result in zero annual gains.
The liquidation rate for altcoin contracts is higher; data from a certain second-tier exchange shows that 92% of users with 50x leverage do not survive beyond 72 hours.
If the strategy used by colleagues is 'following others' or 'trading on news', the long-term win rate will not exceed that of casino blackjack (about 49%).
News cannot always be accurate: even if they got it right this time, what about next time? What about the time after that? In the long run, the win rate for trading on news will not exceed 50%, and might be even lower.
The essence of the market is a zero-sum game: if someone earns 300U, someone else must lose 300U. You think you will be the winner, but statistically, the vast majority of retail investors are losers.
3. The state of being poor is not suitable for touching contracts at all.
1: No margin for error: losing 100 yuan is your living expenses for 2 days, which means you can't afford even the slightest pullback.
2: Lack of basic knowledge: not understanding candlestick patterns, support and resistance, and funding rates, relying solely on following others is no different from betting in a casino.
3: Easily manipulated by emotions: when making a profit, want to increase investment; when losing, want to recover; the final result is definitely being harvested by the market.
If you must participate,
Zero-cost plan:
Simulated trading training: Use the simulation function of exchanges (such as Binance simulated trading) to practice for 3 months and record the decision-making basis for each trade.
On-chain data analysis: Learn to view data platforms like Santiment, observe the movements of large wallet addresses instead of relying on rumors.
Time arbitrage: Use your existing skills (design/programming/copywriting, etc.) to take orders on Web3 freelance platforms; earning stable income is more reliable than gambling.
Extreme risk control plan:
Absolutely not exceeding 2% of disposable cash (based on 1000, it should be around 20 yuan).
Only open leverage below 3x, set automatic take profit and stop loss (for example, close the position immediately if profits reach 15% or losses reach 10%).
Never touch contracts, only trade spot, and only choose BTC/ETH, the top two currencies.
If you are determined to play:
Take 3 months to complete the following preparatory actions:
① Backtest various strategies on TradingView over the past three years.
② Read (A Brief History of Digital Currency) (Cryptographic Assets) to establish a basic understanding.
③ Set up a virtual portfolio on CoinMarketCap to experience real fluctuations.
In this market, living longer is 100 times more important than making quick profits. You are not Liangxi; joining the Liangxi group also requires 1000U. Do you have money??? If someone else's 'success' is sustainable, they should be driving a Porsche by this time next year—it's not too late to follow up then. The most important investment now is cognitive ability and capital accumulation, not a gambling mindset.
(Lack of money + desire to make quick money) is exactly the type of retail investors that market makers love!!!
Real opportunities always belong to those who are not in a hurry to make money.
So the poor ghost with only 1000 yuan decided.
First stabilize the basic position, then think of other things.
