According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the long-awaited approval of an XRP ETF could arrive as early as September or October. This outlook follows a key regulatory update from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which outlines new listing standards for crypto-based exchange-traded products (ETPs).
SEC Sets New Guidelines: Altcoins with Futures Trading Are Eligible
In a recent filing, the SEC introduced updated listing requirements for crypto ETPs. These focus on cryptocurrencies that have had at least six months of futures trading activity on regulated platforms, such as the derivatives exchange offered by Coinbase.
According to Balchunas, this regulatory shift opens the door for ETFs linked to altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin. He emphasized that October looks like the most likely window for XRP ETF approval.
“Any crypto asset with a consistent six-month futures trading history now qualifies for ETF consideration,” said Balchunas.
Technical Barriers Removed: ETFs Can Be Backed by Actual Crypto
An earlier SEC decision to allow the in-kind creation and redemption of ETF shares—meaning with actual cryptocurrency rather than cash—marked another milestone. This move significantly simplifies the settlement process and aligns crypto ETFs more closely with commodity-based ETPs like gold.
Crypto attorney Bill Morgan highlighted that this change greatly improves cost efficiency and operational flexibility, making ETF approval far more likely. Market makers can now operate directly with real crypto assets, reducing friction in the ETF structure.
Proposals Ready — All Eyes on the Green Light
The SEC is currently reviewing multiple XRP ETF applications, including proposals from Bitwise and Franklin Templeton. While the agency has extended its review period on some applications (e.g. Franklin Templeton’s until the end of 2025), the latest developments suggest that decisions may come sooner.
According to Polymarket data, the odds of XRP ETF approval remain high — at around 86%, which aligns with Balchunas’s 85% probability estimate for a fall decision.
Final Hurdle? It May Clear by August 15
The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC remains a key factor in the timing of an XRP ETF. However, former SEC attorney Marc Fagel has suggested that both parties may withdraw their appeals before the next update deadline on August 15, potentially removing one of the last major obstacles.
🔍 One-Minute Summary:
New SEC guidelines give a green light to crypto ETFs tied to assets with an active futures market. XRP is now a frontrunner. Bloomberg analyst Balchunas expects approval by September or October. If the legal standoff between Ripple and the SEC ends soon, there may be nothing left standing in the way of a historic XRP ETF launch.
#xrp , #crypto , #etf , #Altcoin , #Ripple
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