The negative Coinbase premium index and the market's reaction to the disappointing Federal Reserve press conference catalyzed a "significant fluctuation" in Bitcoin prices. Key elements: * The Coinbase premium for Bitcoin turned negative after 62 consecutive days of buying. * Despite rising selling pressure and negative futures CVD, BTC remains above $115,000. The Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase premium index has turned negative for the first time since May 29, ending a streak of 62 days of positive values. This indicator tracks the price difference between Coinbase's BTC/USD and Binance's BTC/USDT currency pairs and is typically used as a representative of U.S. spot demand. This market shift occurred after a prolonged 94-day period of continuous positive premium gaps, marking the strongest institutional demand period for Bitcoin on record. While this shift may suggest waning interest from U.S. buyers, broader market signals indicate that a more nuanced environment is forming. On-chain analyst Boris Vest noted that the buy/sell ratio for Bitcoin recipients has dropped to 0.9, indicating increased selling from market makers. Despite aggressive actions from sellers, Bitcoin's price continues to hold above $115,000, suggesting that larger passive buyers are stepping in to absorb the pressure. Meanwhile, the futures funding rate remains at a neutral 0.01, reflecting neither bullish nor bearish dominance, which means leverage is balanced and there remains the potential for greater volatility. Vest also emphasized that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) of futures continues to reflect ongoing selling pressure without causing any significant price declines. This divergence between volume and price trends indicates underlying strength and may lay the groundwork for liquidity-driven oscillations before any sustainable upward movement. Bitcoin is at a crossroads. While new spot demand appears to be cooling, there are signs that profit-taking is also gradually diminishing. The net realized profit and loss (NRPL) indicator shows no evidence of large-scale exits, and the adjusted SOPR remains well below the 1.10 threshold typically associated with market tops. These indicators suggest that investors remain confident in the current market structure and are not in a hurry to take profits. Macroeconomic conditions further support this view.
