🔍 What to Expect at the FOMC Meeting

Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve is almost certainly going to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, continuing a streak of four consecutive holds. Markets place over 99% probability on no rate change .

Dot Plot & Economic Projections

Attention will focus on the update to the economic projection “dot plot”, which forecasts the pace of interest rate adjustments through 2025–26. Current projections show two projected cuts in 2025, though rising inflation and economic uncertainty could reduce that number to one .

Fed officials are reportedly divided—some favor earlier cuts amid slowing labor markets, others urge caution given inflation risks tied to trade policy .

Inflation & Growth Outlook

Though inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target—with core PCE hovering near 2.7–2.9%—economic growth and labor market data still support a cautious stance. Outlook revisions show slightly lower GDP projections and a bump in unemployment forecasts for 2025 .

Jerome Powell Press Conference

Focus will be on Powell’s tone: will he reinforce a “wait-and-see” posture or hint at potential rate cuts later this year? His speech may offer subtle clues on timing and risks ahead .

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📦 Why It Matters

Cryptocurrency & Equities: Holding rates steady generally supports risk assets. However, cautious remarks could dampen sentiment ahead.

Interest Rates: The market is pricing in possible rate cuts beginning in September or December, but not before more clarity on inflation and growth arrives .

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✅ What Traders Should Watch

The dot plot’s changes—especially if projections shift to fewer cuts.

Any signals or caution from Powell on inflation or trade-related risks.

Upcoming data — especially jobs report, GDP, and PCE readings for confirmation on the Fed’s next steps .

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