Macro:
On July 30 at 20:15, the ADP employment data will be released, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2:00 on July 31, and the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data will be announced at 20:30 on August 1. Typically, before the release of important data, the market will experience slight adjustments, as some funds choose to exit early to avoid risks.
Technical:
The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin on the daily chart are narrowing, with a high probability of a pullback to 116,000 in early August, but the overall downside potential is limited. On the 4-hour level, it continues to trade sideways, neither breaking new highs nor new lows, which is a typical “sideways instead of down” trend. It is expected that major cryptocurrencies will pull back along with Bitcoin, creating a new opportunity for bottom fishing.
Mid-term Outlook:
The overall trend in August is biased towards the upside, and there is a high probability of a rate cut in September. After the positive effects are realized, it may trigger a short-term pullback, leading to a market adjustment. As we enter the fourth quarter, the market is expected to welcome the final wave of this bull market's rally, distributing chips at high positions, and the market may wrap up before the end of the year.
