This week, key market events are frequent. On July 30 at 20:15, ADP employment numbers will be released. On July 31 at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced. On August 1 at 20:30, non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data will also be successively released. Typically, before the release of such important data, the market may experience a slight decline, with some funds preferring to exit early for risk aversion.
The daily Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin are clearly narrowing, and technically, there is a high probability of a pullback to the 116,000 area in early August, although the likelihood of a significant drop is low. The 4-hour structure continues to oscillate sideways, remaining stagnant for several days, exhibiting a consolidation trend of 'sideways instead of down.' Major coins are expected to follow Bitcoin with a slight decline, followed by an excellent buying opportunity.
The overall trend in August remains bullish, with a positive outlook for a mid-term rebound; September may see the anticipated interest rate cuts in the market, but once the news materializes, it could trigger a phase of downward adjustment. It is expected that September will enter a consolidation and accumulation phase, while the fourth quarter will be the last surge of the bull market, with funds exiting at high levels, ultimately completing the distribution of the market peak.
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