As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares for today’s policy meeting, market watchers are nearly unanimous: a rate cut is not coming just yet.


🔍 Why Rates Will Likely Stay Put




  • Market Sentiment: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 97% probability the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%.




  • Fed’s Messaging: Officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have consistently stated their preference to pause and assess more data before moving toward easing.




  • Inflation Still Sticky: Core inflation came in at around 2.9%$TRUMP

    in June, still well above the Fed’s 2% target—a key reason policymakers remain cautious.





⚖️ Policy Split Inside the Fed




  • Dissent Expected: Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman may push for a 25-basis-point cut, citing labor market softening—though they’re expected to remain in the minority.




  • Political Pressure?: Despite former President Trump’s repeated calls for a rate cut, the Fed continues to emphasize its independence and data-driven approach.





🔮 What Comes Next?




  • Eyes on September: Markets are now betting on a potential rate cut in September 2025, if inflation continues to decline and labor data shows further weakness.




  • Current Fed Outlook: The Fed's median forecast still includes two rate cuts by year-end, but only if inflation and employment data justify it.





🎙️ What to Watch in Powell’s Press Conference:




  • Will he hint at a September cut timeline?




  • How much weight will upcoming jobs, inflation, and GDP data carry?




  • Any shift in tone that suggests easing bias?





🧾 Final Takeaway




  • Decision Expected: 🟥 Hold rates at 4.25%–4.50%




  • Key Risks: Inflation resilience, Fed division




  • Next Watchpoint: September FOMc meeting





📌 Verify signals, not speculation. The Fed is data-first and politics-second.


#InflationWatch #MonetaryPolicy #FedUpdate