✅The first target has been successfully achieved — arc correction with a rebound around 115000. The forecast has been fulfilled, and the result can be locked in.
➡️The next stage — development of the global scenario. In focus — movement along the presumed "yellow route." An important question arises: will the price gap be closed after the pullback from the 121000 zone? According to technical analysis — the probability is high, but the market can surprise. Right now — just observing.
➡️Key event — FOMC meeting on July 30 at 21:00, and especially important are Powell's words that will be heard at 21:30 Moscow time. The forecast remains unchanged: a possible rise within five days before or after the speech, or directly at the moment of reaction to the statement.
‼️It is important to remember: this is just a scenario, not a guarantee. The RSI indicator on the daily timeframe has not dropped into the 30% zone and below for a long time, the weekly shows weakening, and the monthly still does not provide clear signals. In case of increased divergence, everything will depend on capital flows. The situation can change sharply — both in August and immediately after the meeting.
➡️Interesting point: correction before the FOMC meeting often turns out to be favorable, as after it a continuation of the upward movement is often observed — especially with moderately optimistic rhetoric. We are monitoring the reaction.
📝 Personally, I still bet on the formation of a "bullish flag." Yes, this pattern may take time to develop, but the structure remains.
📉 Support levels: 116510, 115000, 114300, 112640, 114400, 111301, 110500, 109050, 108310, 106800, 100000 (reference — EMA 200 on the daily)
📈 Resistance levels: 117540, 118700, 120200, 121800, 123200, 124651, 127010, 131810, 138901, 140001