The Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC monetary policy meeting from July 30 (Tuesday) to July 31 (Wednesday), and the market widely expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.50%. Polymarket prediction market shows that as of July 29, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate is as high as 97%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 3%.

July 30 (Wednesday): The preliminary GDP for the second quarter will be released, with an expectation of +1.9%, showing a significant recovery compared to the -0.5% in the first quarter. If the actual value continues to rise, it may be interpreted by the market as 'soft landing is still progressing', which could suppress demand for an early rate cut.

July 31 (Thursday): The core PCE inflation for June will be published, with an expected year-on-year growth of 2.7%, which is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to. If it is slightly below expectations, it may strengthen the market's bets on a rate cut within the year; if it unexpectedly rises, it could trigger adjustments in short-term risk assets.

August 1 (Friday): The non-farm payroll data for July will be released, with an expectation of an increase of 115,000 jobs and an unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2%. This will directly affect the Federal Reserve's judgment on whether 'the labor market has significantly cooled', and it may also be a key puzzle piece in determining the policy tone.

The expectation for a rate cut tomorrow is low.