Bitcoin Volatility & Market Outlook (July 2025)

Volatility at Historic Lows:

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has dropped to 40.84, the lowest since September 2023, entering a historically bullish zone that often precedes breakouts or strong uptrends.

Realized Volatility Compression:

Despite hitting all-time highs in May 2025, realized volatility is in the 10th percentile (lowest in 10 years), suggesting Bitcoin is maturing into a more stable asset—attractive for institutions managing risk.

Onchain Behavior (Short-Term Holders):

STH realized cap drawdown at -8% = manageable losses → historically signals accumulation phase, not panic.

STH MVRV ratio at 1.19 vs. 1.33 cycle high (Nov 2024) → reduced speculation, more holders waiting for bigger moves.

Accumulation Signals:

Price range $110k–$117k is filling in gradually → structured buying on dips and at highs.

STH supply rose to 4.58 million $BTC , suggesting new demand or long-term holder rotation into active supply.

Key Insight:

This quiet, low-volatility phase is likely an accumulation zone. If historical patterns hold, it could precede a bullish breakout, though the maturing market may delay explosive volatility seen in past cycles.