As reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin’s volatility is at its lowest level since September 2023, which could mean a breakout is coming. The short-term holders (STH) are currently facing a drawdown of -8%, which has historically been a strong buying zone. This recent calm in Bitcoin price hints at a quiet accumulation phase, but past data shows these low-volatility periods usually don’t last long.
The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) for 30 days has dropped to 40.84, going below the 45 mark – a rare event that's only happened 21 times in nearly three years. Every time BVIV dropped under 45 since late 2022, it was followed by either strong accumulation or major price gains. For example, the last time it was this low in Sept 2023, Bitcoin jumped nearly 50% from $26,000. So if history repeats, we might see a big upward move soon.
Even though Bitcoin hit new all-time highs in May 2025, $BTC the 30-day realized volatility is still shrinking — now in the lowest 10% of the past 10 years. Ecoinometrics says this could mean Bitcoin is becoming a more stable investment, which might attract big institutional investors who prefer assets with lower risk. If this trend continues, we might not see wild price swings immediately — but the overall mood still leans bullish.
On-chain data shows short-term holders are still confident. Their drawdown is just -8%, meaning newer investors aren’t panicking or selling in fear. The STH MVRV ratio is at 1.19, down from 1.33 in November 2024, showing less hype and more patience from holders.
Glassnode data also shows steady accumulation between the $110,000–$117,000 range. Investors are buying both on dips and at higher prices, forming a step-like pattern of buying activity — a sign of smart, planned accumulation instead of emotional buying. Plus, STH supply has grown from 4.36 million to 4.58 million BTC, which means either new investors are entering the market, or long-term holders are reactivating part of their stash.
