Historical collapses: The problem is not 'too much rise,' but 'weak foundations'
In the past few major drops, the surface was a price correction, but the core was the collapse of the trust system:
• 2018 ICO bubble burst: projects ran off with money, tokens lacked value support, and with the SEC crackdown, it was 'liquidation after disorderly expansion';
• 2022 Terra/UST Crisis: The decoupling of algorithmic stablecoins triggered a run, major players collapsed, exposing the flaws of 'leveraged abuse and risk transmission without regulation';
• End of 2023 regulatory storm: exchanges and stablecoins under investigation, the market panicked due to 'unknown compliance,' reflecting anxiety over 'ambiguous legal status.'
The commonality of these events is: the market lacks clear rules and risk firewalls, making single-point crises prone to systemic collapse.
Current transformation: Three institutional breakthroughs solidify the 'breakwater'
The core difference in this bull market lies in the restructuring of institutions and structures, with three breakthroughs constructing a new ecosystem:
The regulatory framework has shifted from 'ambiguous' to 'clear': U.S. legislation regulates stablecoin reserves, clarifies the legal positioning of crypto assets, reduces stablecoin risks, facilitates the entry of enterprises and institutions in accordance with regulations, and reduces policy uncertainties.
Participants have shifted from 'retail-dominated' to 'diverse co-governance': the U.S. classifies Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, companies are increasing holdings, major players are laying out through ETFs, demand structures are diverse, and volatility resistance is enhanced, avoiding retail panic sales dominating the market.
Value support has shifted from 'speculation' to 'application': the narrative shifts towards the actual application of public chains, the application layer ecosystem matures, and asset prices shift from reliance on expectations to actual utility, improving resistance to declines.
Future trends: Volatility remains, but the 'collapse logic' has failed
Price corrections remain the norm, but the nature of risk has changed:
• Past corrections may have been precursors to systemic collapses, today they are more likely to be liquidity rebalancing or emotional recovery;
• The impact of black swan events is limited, compliant stablecoins have reserves, institutional funds are constrained by compliance, and single-point risks are hard to transmit;
• Long-term trends rely more on institutional deepening and application implementation, rather than short-term speculation.
Summary: Don't use old experiences to predict new cycles
The difference in this bull market lies in the market's shift from 'wild growth' to 'institutional development.' The establishment of three pillars—legal rules, institutional participation, and application implementation—greatly reduces the probability of a total collapse due to trust collapse.
Future market volatility is more likely to be normal fluctuations in maturity, rather than a destructive collapse of the old cycle. Understanding this underlying logic change is key to objectively viewing current adjustments and opportunities—this may not be a simple bull-bear cycle, but rather the growing pains of the crypto market moving towards mainstreaming.
