Bitcoin has been around for ten years; some people have come and gone, some have left and come back, some come and never leave, and some leave and never return.
The vast majority of early Bitcoin players have already exited, and many people have watched Bitcoin soar without getting on board. This is good news for us because if they were all on board now, could the price still be tens of thousands?
Hesitating to get on board and eager to get off may be due to various reasons, but the main reason is that the vision in one's heart is not big enough.
Vision determines perspective, and perspective determines action.
When the price of Bitcoin is 10 yuan, they say it's too expensive.
When the price of Bitcoin is 100 yuan, they say it's too expensive.
When the price of Bitcoin is 1,000 yuan, they say it's too expensive.
When the price of Bitcoin is 10,000 yuan, they say it's too expensive.
Bitcoin always seems too expensive; they never dare to buy.
When the price of Bitcoin is 10 yuan, we say it's still early.
When the price of Bitcoin is 100 yuan, we say it's still early.
When the price of Bitcoin is 1,000 yuan, we say it's still early.
When the price of Bitcoin is 10,000 yuan, we say it's still early.
Bitcoin always seems too early; we never dare to sell.
Without a vision in mind, we might endure a bear market, but we absolutely cannot hold onto a bull market. If it rises, you will sell, and don't doubt it; 480,000 is a living example.
To remain unshaken regardless of bull or bear markets, the most important question to think clearly about is: how big is its future?
Another hundred times increase? You are too pessimistic; a hundred times is too little. Let me share my vision.
The core application of Bitcoin is storing value, and its future goal is to become people's first choice for storing value.
So, what did we use to store value before Bitcoin appeared? In other words, when we made some money and deducted our expenses, in what form would we save our wealth? They were mainly gold, currency, and real estate.
Figure 1. Total amounts of gold, currency, and real estate in the world
The total market value of gold worldwide is 7.7 trillion dollars, the total amount of broad money is 90.4 trillion dollars, and real estate is 217 trillion dollars.
The main current use of gold is storing value, and in terms of storing value, Bitcoin is superior to gold in every aspect; it is only a matter of time before its market cap surpasses gold.
Broad money includes: cash, term deposits, securities firm client margin, etc. Aside from cash (accounting for 8%) used for circulation, the rest is used for storing value.
The main purpose of real estate should still be for living and use, but there is certainly a considerable proportion used for storing value. If it weren't for Bitcoin, I would probably use most of my funds to buy a house. Since there are no proportions to check, we temporarily assume that 20% of real estate is used for storing value (this proportion does not affect the final result's magnitude).
So, how big is the global total value storage market? 7.7 + 90.4 × 92% + 217 × 20% = 134 trillion.
And the total amount of Bitcoin is only 21 million, with about 3 million permanently lost. Considering Bitcoin's absolute advantage in storing value compared to gold, currency, and real estate, each Bitcoin will rise to 7.5 million dollars, equivalent to 50 million yuan.
Is that all? Of course not.
The total wealth of the world is growing at a rate of 6% per year, and ten years from now, the total will be 1.8 times what it is now; twenty years later, it will be 3.2 times what it is now. Therefore, assuming that the storing value function of Bitcoin is widely recognized in twenty years, its price should be 160 million yuan.
The above calculations only consider Bitcoin's storing value function. If other factors are taken into account, Bitcoin's total market value will be higher.
In other words, Bitcoin still has a thousand times growth potential. Every four years, when the production is halved and supply suddenly decreases, a new round of surges will come.
Sometimes, I walk through the busiest parts of the city, weaving through the crowd, watching people come and go. I wonder, what jobs are these people doing? How are their families? What are they busy pursuing all day? How many of them know about Bitcoin? And how many can understand the future of Bitcoin?
Although Bitcoin once peaked at 100,000 yuan, it is evident that 99% of the crowd still does not understand Bitcoin and still do not hold it. This is of course good news, as it also means that there is still huge potential for Bitcoin to rise.
Currently, the version number of the Bitcoin Core client is v0.16.2. Although the Bitcoin network has been running steadily for nearly a decade, the client has still not upgraded to version 1.0. We are actually just a group of beta users; the real users have not yet arrived.
If we compare Bitcoin to a child, then this child has not yet been born; it is still just a fetus. Although it has grown millions of times from a fertilized egg to a fetus, there is still infinite growth potential from fetus to infant to child to adult.
