🩸 YESTERDAY'S DUMP – Is it a real downtrend or just a shakeout to "liquidate longs/shorts"?
Last night, the crypto market experienced a significant drop – But $BTC $ETH BTC only fell slightly from around 119k to about ~118k, ETH also lightly crashed from ~3,900 USD down to ~3,762 USD before returning around 3,800 USD.
🎯 Is it a real downtrend?
I don't think it's at that level yet. This situation seems like a liquidation sweep:
There is no clear negative news sufficient to cause a deep price drop.
Volume increased but did not maintain prolonged levels.
Support levels like near 118k (BTC) and ~3,800 (ETH) are still holding well.
BTC is moving sideways around 118k–119k; ETH has maintained above 3,800 USD, the trend appears to be static waiting for a breakout before this month's FOMC.
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🧠 FOMC & Powell – A litmus test for the market today (29–30/7)
Tomorrow is the FOMC decision along with Powell's speech – this news is extremely significant. According to most analyses:
The Fed will keep interest rates at 4.25%–4.5%, but Powell's signals will determine the next direction.
The forecast trend is that the Fed may cut by 0.25% later in 2025 – if Powell hints at this in the press, the market will react very positively.
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🔮 Upcoming scenarios: Pump or further dump?
📈 If Powell is “dovish” – a gentle tone:
Hinting at the possibility of no further hikes or cuts later, the market will jump immediately:
BTC could quickly rise back to the 119k–120k range
ETH could strongly rebound to the 3,900–4,000 USD range.
📉 If Powell continues to be “hawkish”:
Emphasizing that inflation remains high, and a longer tightening is needed then:
BTC could easily drop to the 115k range
ETH may test back to 3,600–3,700 or even lower.
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🤔 In summary?
I see this dump as highly likely a pre-news liquidation rather than entering a long-term downtrend.