📉 Bitcoin has reached a strategic inflection point, and seasonal pressure is approaching

Since June, $BTC has rebounded to $116K, and market sentiment is gradually optimistic, but now we have arrived at a time window that deserves special vigilance: the seasonal weakness period from August to September.

The chart shows:

1️⃣ Average return in August ≈ 0%, win rate only 30%

2️⃣ September is worse, with an average return of -3%

3️⃣ These are the two worst-performing months for Bitcoin throughout the year.

History does not simply repeat itself, but capital behavior has indeed experienced multiple natural retreats during these time periods.

The current market logic is as follows:

The rise has already realized previous benefits (sentiment repair, institutional inflow)

This week there is a series of macro events being released:

 📅 Federal Reserve meeting

 📅 White House digital asset report

 📅 Peak of US stock earnings season

Once the benefits run out but there are no new catalysts, the market may fall into a stagnant rise → oscillation and distribution rhythm

The real challenge is not the sharp decline, but the high-level oscillation + lack of direction + rapid rotation of hot spots.

My strategy suggestions:

✅ 1. Do not chase highs currently, wait for a pullback confirmation

✅ 2. If macro signals are strong (such as clear interest rate cut expectations), then increase positions to bet on trend continuation

✅ 3. If the market becomes dull and oscillates, consider appropriately reducing positions or shifting to a volatility strategy

Trend trading is not about catching every rise, but understanding when to observe and when to take action.