July rate cut? Think too much! Powell 'absolutely' won't back down, the Fed's real window is in September
Is the market fantasizing about a rate cut in July? Let me be clear: No! Possibility!
Next week, the Federal Reserve will hold a new round of FOMC meetings. The conclusion about whether to cut rates is actually already written in the data. Let's get straight to the point:
According to the latest released high-frequency economic data from the United States—employment remains strong, service inflation is resilient, and core inflation stickiness has not eased. The Fed has no room for any monetary easing at all.
Therefore, the result of this meeting is almost certain: maintaining interest rates.
You can expect the market to 'dream', but don't count on Powell to 'soften'—because the data doesn't give any opportunities.
Trump's attack on Powell is political maneuvering, not a monetary signal
Recently, Trump's team has been wildly attacking Powell over the 'Federal Reserve building renovation budget overruns', appearing to focus on fiscal issues, but actually has other motives.
The key point is: Powell has allegedly 'lied' in public, and if this is confirmed, it will trigger a credibility crisis and could even lead to resignation.
But even if Powell really leaves, a rate cut in July would be too late!
Firstly, the decision-making mechanism is complex, and secondly, there is too little time before the meeting to change direction suddenly.
Here comes the conclusion: not cutting rates in July is highly likely (the market pricing probability has exceeded 90%);
If there is really any action, the earliest it could be is September, when the Fed will enter an 'optional rate cut window';
During this period, the US stock/crypto market will face 'expectation game' pull, and high volatility may be just around the corner.
Operational advice: do not bet on a 'surprise rate cut' at the July meeting, that is not professional, it is gambling;
The real opportunity lies in how the market interprets 'rate cut expectations' before September;
If you are in the crypto world, remember one thing: prices often rise on expectations first, and then fall to cash in.
Currently, for friends who are confused about trading losses and want to recover losses, step up your game and feast on profits!!
