Brothers, stop turning rolling positions into 'suicidal adding positions.' I blew up 3 times to understand: the essence of rolling positions is not 'add when you earn,' but to control the pace of adding positions with a mathematical formula, letting profits grow bigger like a snowball without increasing principal risk.
Today I thoroughly dissected the rolling position techniques, from adding position signals to position calculations, each number is backed by practical verification, and finally attached a complete case of weekly level rolling positions. By following this, you can also roll your 100,000 principal into 500,000 in a trend market.
One, the underlying logic of rolling positions: use profits as bullets, the principal is always safe
In 2023, during the ETH rise from 1800 to 2800, I witnessed the dumbest operation: someone used the principal to add positions 3 times, a 15% pullback directly blew up. The real rolling position is 'the principal is untouched, profits charge,' just like attacking with captured ammunition during war, never touching the original capital.
Rolling position iron rule: added position funds = realized profits × adding ratio
For example, with 100,000 principal opening long, profit 20,000 (realized 10,000), at this time the available funds for adding position = 10,000 × 50% = 5000 dollars (adding ratio based on market strength, maximum does not exceed 50%). Even if this 5000 dollars loses all, the principal and the realized 10,000 remain safe, total loss only 5%.
Last year's SOL rolling position case:
Principal 100,000, first position 30,000 (30% position), 10x leverage
Increase of 20% profit 60,000, take profit 20,000, leave 40,000 floating profit
Use 50% of realized profits (10,000) to add positions, at this time total position is 40,000 (30,000 principal + 10,000 profit)
Rise another 30%, total profit reaches 120,000, the principal has never been moved
This is the core of rolling positions: let profits bear the risk, the principal always stands in a safe zone. Those who use the principal to add positions are essentially gambling, while we are using mathematical compound interest to make money.
Two, three heavy verifications of adding position signals: none can be missing
Don't just see 'up and add positions'; last May when BTC rose to 40,000, some people in the group added positions three times in a row, and as a result, a pullback of 8% wiped out all profits. The real adding position signal needs three layers of verification; missing one is a trap.
1. Verification of trend strength (using moving averages and trading volume)
Moving average resonance: must satisfy daily MA10 stabilizing, 4-hour MA5 crossing above MA20 (to ensure short-term trend is upwards)
Volume expansion: the trading volume when adding positions must be more than 1.5 times the average volume of the last three days (real funds entering the market, not inducing high)
Last November, when BTC broke through 36,000, I waited 2 days to add position: although it rose the first day, the trading volume did not expand, the second day the trading volume suddenly reached twice the average, and the 4-hour MA5 golden cross MA20, only then did it meet the conditions to add position, in the end, this wave made a 40% profit.
2. Verification of funding sentiment (look at funding rates and long-short ratios)
Funding rate: perpetual contract rate must be ≤ 0.01% (too high indicates long position crowding, potential for pullback at any time)
Long to short ratio: exchange long to short ratio ≤ 1.2 (less retail long positions, the longer the market holds)
Last month when adding positions in ETH, I specifically checked that OK's long-short ratio was 1.1, and the funding rate was 0.005%, indicating a calm market sentiment, not yet in a frenzy, and after adding positions, it indeed rose another 25%. Conversely, last year when DOGE's long-short ratio reached 1.8, someone added positions and got trapped at the top.
3. Verification of pullback structure (avoiding chasing highs)
Adding position must wait for a 'healthy pullback':
Pullback amplitude ≤ 30% of the previous wave increase (for example, if it rises 100 points, the pullback does not exceed 30 points)
Volume contraction during pullback (trading volume is less than 50% of the upward volume, indicating light selling pressure)
When SOL was at 120 dollars, I didn't add positions, waiting for it to pull back to 110 dollars (8% pullback, volume down 60%) before acting, which lowered the cost and filtered out false breakouts. Those who added positions at the highest point were essentially blinded by greed.
Three, mathematical model for position calculation: accurate to 1% of added position ratio
Rolling positions are not about adding randomly; how much to add each time must be calculated using a formula—this is the survival model I summarized after blowing up twice.
Basic formula: single position adding ratio = (profit margin - safety cushion) × risk coefficient
Profit margin: current profit ÷ opening principal (for example, 100,000 earns 30,000, which is 30%)
Safety cushion: minimum retained profit (at least 20%, to avoid exposing the principal after profit withdrawal)
Risk coefficient: determined by trend strength (strong trend 0.5, weak trend 0.3)
For example: 100,000 principal, 30% profit, strong trend market
Single adding position ratio = (30%-20%) × 0.5 = 5%
Use at most 5% of the profit to add position (30,000 × 5% = 1500 dollars)
Maximum limits for adding positions at different stages:
Phase one (profit 0-50%): total adding positions do not exceed 30% of the profit
Phase two (profit 50%-100%): total added positions do not exceed 50% of the profit
Phase three (profit over 100%): total added positions do not exceed 70% of the profit
Last year, BTC rose from 30,000 to 60,000, I added positions in three batches:
36,000 (profit 20%): add 20% of the profit (6000 dollars)
45,000 (profit 50%): add 30% of the profit (15,000)
54,000 (profit 80%): add 40% of the profit (32,000)
Final total profit 180,000, all added position funds are profits, the principal has not moved a cent.
Special handling of extreme market conditions:
When the daily increase exceeds 10% (for example, stimulated by good news), no adding positions are allowed that day—this kind of market will 90% pull back, last year on the day of ETH merge, those who chased high positions were all caught.
4. Dynamic adjustment of stop loss and take profit: let profits run, stop losses brake
The easiest mistake in rolling positions: not adjusting stop loss after adding position, earning 100,000 then losing 50,000 in the end. Must establish a mechanism of 'adding positions means expanding stop loss, profit means raising take profit.'
Adjustment formula for stop loss after adding positions:
New stop loss = (original stop loss × original position + adding position price × added amount) ÷ total position
For example:
Original position 30,000, opening price 1000 dollars, stop loss 900 dollars
Add position of 10,000, adding position price at 1100 dollars
New stop loss = (900×3 + 1100×1) ÷ 4 = 950 dollars (increased by 50 dollars from the original stop loss, locking in part of the profit)
Last year, using this trick on APT, after adding position, the stop loss was raised from 8 dollars to 8.5 dollars, later rebounding at 8.6 dollars, neither getting washed out nor protecting the profit. Those who still used the original stop loss after adding positions were already swept out.
The 'ladder-style increase' strategy for taking profits:
First profit margin of 20%: raise take profit to opening price + 10% (ensure no loss)
After adding position once: raise take profit to first opening price + 30%
Total profit exceeds 50%: use moving take profit (for example, if it falls below the 4-hour MA10, close 30%)
Last month when SOL rolled to 150 dollars, total profit was 60%, I set the moving take profit at 140 dollars (4-hour MA10 position), finally took profit at 145 dollars, capturing most of the profit while avoiding a pullback.
Five, rolling position strategies for different market environments: two methods for trend and volatile markets
Don't force rolling positions in a volatile market! In 2022, I rolled ETH in the 1500-1800 range three times, each adding position was repeatedly harvested, and in the end, all profits were given up. Must switch strategies based on market structure.
Trend market rolling position (weekly MA20 upwards):
Position adding frequency: add once for each breakthrough of a previous high (for example, BTC breaks 40,000, 45,000, 50,000 each add once)
Position adding ratio: gradually increase (first time 20% profit, second time 30%, third time 40%)
Exit signal: weekly closing price breaks MA20, immediately close all added positions, retain the first position
During the main upward wave of BTC from 30,000 to 60,000 last year, I used this trick to add positions 4 times, finally clearing the added positions when the weekly line broke MA20, earning 280,000 just from profits.
Rolling positions in a volatile market (weekly line fluctuating around MA20):
Adding position frequency: at most add once, must reduce positions at 30% profit
Adding position ratio: not exceed 20% of the profit (reduce risk)
Exit signal: immediately close part of the added positions when touching the upper edge of the volatility, retain the first position
In February-March this year, when ETH fluctuated between 1800-2200, I only added position once, and when it was 25% profit, I reduced half, although I didn't capture the full profit, but avoided later pullback losses. The core of rolling positions in a volatile market is 'take profits when it's good,' don’t be greedy for trend profits.
Six, three traps of rolling positions that must lose: using my blow-up lessons to help you avoid pitfalls
1. Use principal to supplement positions instead of rolling positions
In 2021, I lost 20,000 on LUNA, impulsively used principal to add position to dilute costs, resulting in increasing losses and ultimately blowing up. Remember: rolling position funds must be 'realized profits,' never touch the principal.
2. Ignore the strangulation of funding rates
Last year when rolling positions in BNB, the funding rate exceeded 0.05% for three consecutive days, I didn't take it seriously, and as a result, I lost 8% profit in five days due to the rate. During high rates, it is necessary to reduce adding positions or even reduce positions—the exchange is reminding you 'too many longs.'
3. Excessively pursuing 'full position rolling'
There was a student who always thought about 'rolling to the right position in one go,' adding 50% profit at 10% profit, and the result was a 5% pullback triggered stop loss, losing not only the profit but also the added position funds. Rolling position should be like 'peeling an onion,' adding layer by layer, don’t expect to get fat in one bite.
Appendix: Complete rolling position practical case (ETH March to May 2024)
March 15: first position 30,000 (30% position), opening price 2000 dollars, stop loss 1900 dollars (5% stop loss), 10x leverage
March 22: ETH rises to 2400 dollars (profit 20%), take profit 10,000, use 20% of the profit (2000 dollars) to add position, adding position price at 2420 dollars, new stop loss at 2000 dollars (break-even)
April 5: breaking 2600 dollars (total profit 30%), use 30% profit (3000 dollars) to add position, adding position price at 2610 dollars, new stop loss at 2200 dollars
April 20: rise to 3000 dollars (total profit 50%), use 40% profit (8000 dollars) to add position, adding position price at 3020 dollars, new stop loss at 2500 dollars
May 10: weekly line breaks MA20, close all added positions (total 13,000), retain the first position, final total profit 126,000
The entire process was not monitored, relying entirely on conditional orders, all added position funds were profits, and the principal of 30,000 was not damaged at all. This is the ultimate goal of rolling positions: let profits run automatically, and risks are always controllable.
Finally, a heartfelt statement
Rolling positions are not a tool for 'quick profits,' but a system for 'letting profits compound.' Those who casually say 'double with one roll' are either lucky or have not blown up yet. True experts in rolling positions understand how to use mathematics to control greed and use discipline to counter fear.
Before the next opening position, first ask yourself three questions:
Is the added position funding the profits already realized?
Have all three adding position signals been met?
Is the stop loss after adding position clearly calculated?
Answer these three questions clearly before adding positions. Three months later, you will find that the profits in your account are no longer a 'roller coaster,' but steadily rising like climbing stairs—this is the true power of rolling positions.