Over the past few years, Bitcoin has often been compared to the global money supply (M2) as a hedge against monetary expansion and inflation. Bitcoin’s price action has closely followed the growth of M2, reflecting its role as a macro asset. However, Ethereum ($ETH), despite being the second-largest cryptocurrency, deviated from the M2 trendline last year.

Now, the tides are shifting — Ethereum is catching up, and the factors at play could send its price soaring to $10,000 this cycle.

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1. The M2 Connection: Bitcoin Led the Way

The M2 money supply represents all the cash, deposits, and easily convertible near money in circulation. Bitcoin has historically moved in tandem with M2 growth, positioning itself as a digital alternative to fiat. During the recent bull market, BTC rallied alongside the M2 expansion.

Ethereum, however, fell behind due to macroeconomic headwinds, high gas fees during the bear market, and a slowdown in DeFi activity. But with renewed network upgrades and institutional focus, ETH is starting to align with M2 dynamics once again.

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2. Institutional Bidding for Ethereum

The launch of Ethereum spot ETFs, coupled with strong institutional interest, has made ETH an essential portfolio asset for large investors. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other giants have already entered the Ethereum market.

The inflows into Ethereum ETFs are rapidly growing, providing consistent buying pressure and liquidity. With Bitcoin’s narrative shifting towards being a macro reserve asset, Ethereum is now emerging as the “tech play” of the crypto space, attracting capital for its smart contract capabilities and staking yields.

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3. Supply Scarcity & Staking

Since Ethereum’s Merge (transition to Proof-of-Stake), the supply dynamics have fundamentally changed. A large portion of ETH is staked, reducing circulating supply. Combined with EIP-1559’s burn mechanism, ETH is now deflationary at times of high network usage.

This supply scarcity acts as a strong catalyst for price appreciation — demand is rising while supply is shrinking.

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4. $10,000 ETH This Cycle?

If Bitcoin continues its trajectory toward $150K–$200K this cycle, a 5–6x move in Ethereum is not unrealistic. A $10,000 ETH would give Ethereum a market cap of roughly $1.2 trillion — a level that is achievable given the growth of DeFi, NFTs, Layer 2 ecosystems, and real-world tokenization projects.

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5. If You Missed BTC, ETH Is Your Next Best Shot

The BTC/M2 trade was one of the most profitable macro moves over the past few years. Now, Ethereum is positioning itself as the next major asset to benefit from institutional adoption and macro liquidity cycles.

With its combination of technology, deflationary economics, and institutional-grade products, ETH could become the standout performer of this bull cycle.

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Conclusion:

The road to $10,000 ETH isn’t just a wild prediction — it’s a logical outcome of Ethereum’s evolving fundamentals, supply mechanics, and the rising tide of global liquidity. As the crypto market matures, Ethereum’s role as the backbone of decentralized applications makes it one of the most asymmetric opportunities for long-term investors.