Current situation (July 26, 2025):
- Price: ~1.08–1.12 USD (based on current data, CoinMarketCap, Gate.io).
- Context: LAYER is the native token of Solayer, an L2 protocol on Solana launched in February 2025. Solayer enhances scalability, liquidity, and performance of dApps in DeFi/GameFi through restaking (sSOL for SOL, mSOL, JitoSOL), InfiniSVM (1 million+ TPS), RDMA, and stake-weighted QoS. Market capitalization: ~227–250 million USD (ranking ~200–300). Trading volume: ~113–500 million USD/24h. Circulating supply: ~210 million LAYER, maximum: 1 billion. Price has fallen ~68% from ATH (3.41 USD, March 2025), but has risen ~44% since the beginning of the year (@Bitget, @Calderaxyz). TVL: ~400–600 million USD. Positivity on X is related to airdrops and partnerships (@erzacici).
Technical forecast for 2026 (based on analytics):
- Prices:
- Optimistic: 2.58–5.09 USD (growth of 140–370%) in a bull market, Solana ETF, and DeFi growth.
- Neutral: 1.32–2.77 USD (growth of 20–150%).
- Pessimistic: 0.62–0.90 USD during corrections or regulatory restrictions.
- Levels:
- Support: 0.83–1.09 USD, 0.52–0.80 USD.
- Resistance: 1.45–1.78 USD, 2.20–2.77 USD.
- Trend: Mixed. Daily chart bullish (RSI ~50–60, 50 MA above 200 MA, ascending triangle), but 4-hour RSI >78 signals overbought. Breakout at 1.45 USD may indicate growth, drop below 1.09 USD — correction.
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Restaking and DeFi: Restaking SOL through sSOL increases yield and security. TVL $1 billion+, 27 million+ wallets. Integrations with Wormhole, Mayan ($sUSD).
- Partnerships: Binance Labs ($25 million, August 2024), Coinbase, MEXC, Bybit, Chainlink, Solana. Support from Sequoia, Dragonfly.
- Technology: InfiniSVM, RDMA (>100 Gbps), swQoS for priority transactions. Support for 50+ rollups.
- Tokenomics: 51.23% of tokens for the ecosystem, 12% for Genesis Airdrop. Staking (APR ~3–7%), low circulating supply (21%).
- Community: Positivity on X (@erzacici, @Calderaxyz), growth expectations to $2–5 (@Bitget).
- BTC Halving (2024): supports altcoins in 2025–2026.
- Risks:
- Regulation: SEC may classify LAYER as a security.
- Volatility: low market capitalization (~250 million USD) vulnerable to whales (20% in one wallet).
- Competition: Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, LayerZero.
- Unlocks: ~50 million USD in 2025 may pressure the price.
- Pessimism: WalletInvestor predicts a drop to $0.06 by 2025, which contradicts trends.
Recommendation:
- Investors: Buy on correction to 0.83–1.09 USD, stop loss below 0.52 USD. Target: 2.20–5.00 USD. Staking (APR ~3–7%) for income.
- Traders: Buy on breakout at 1.45 USD, target 2.20–2.77 USD. Sell below 1.09 USD, target 0.52–0.80 USD.
- Risk: 0.5–1% of deposit due to high volatility, regulatory risks, and token concentration.
Risk factors: Regulation, competition, unlocks, whale manipulation, declining interest in L2/DeFi, falling BTC/SOL.