ETH Trend Analysis
Currently, on the daily chart, ETH is oscillating repeatedly in the range of 3500-3770 USD, and I believe that a short-term breakout is quite difficult. The potential expectation corresponding to this trend is: many people might consider 4100 USD as the top, but in my view, this pattern might be a bit small.
Looking back, ETH oscillated for a long time in the 2100-2500 USD range. I understand that one of the core purposes is to wash the positions—concentrating the average holding price of both long and short sides in this range. This way, whether it’s a price drop or an increase afterward, there will be enough "fuel" (foundation of market consensus) to support it, as previously confirmed by the market.
We all know: when the real economy weakens, the financial markets often become unusually active, but the outcome is usually a crash. Take a look at the A-shares, US stocks, and other major global markets, which generally follow this pattern: when institutional hot money has nowhere to go, it rushes into areas with short-term benefits, pushing up asset prices, and after reaching a high point, it cashes out through a sharp drop, reserving ammunition for future economic recovery. Therefore, I firmly believe: 4100 USD is definitely not the top!
The current oscillating market is essentially aimed at concentrating the average holding price in this new range. Most retail investors cannot hold onto profitable positions, and this up-and-down fluctuation will force many people to frequently enter and exit (a breeding ground for both long and short squeezes). Of course, there are definitely some people who took profits in the 2700-2900 USD range and did not exit, but for market makers, it is impossible to wash out everyone—these profitable positions at high levels will not create strong selling pressure during subsequent increases. More importantly, if there is a high concentration of bullish sentiment in the market ("the vehicle is too heavy"), then the increase becomes a means of lifting others up.
The true start of a bull market often occurs when most people have not yet boarded. From a technical perspective, after breaking through 4100 USD, it will either initiate a new wave of 5 upward or face a sharp decline. Considering the current real economic environment, I am more inclined to believe that institutions and major players will reach a consensus to "continue to push up".
Some may say: "Wasn't there a bull market last year, even reaching new highs?" In fact, last year could have completed a full bull market, but many underestimated the variable of "Trump's election"—coming from a business background, his actions are more inclined toward capital games. This is also why the market has been declining since February: essentially, many institutions are using this point to rebuild positions, paving the way for the next round.
