Comprehensive technical and market analysis of Toncoin (TON)
Executive Summary
This report presents a comprehensive technical and market analysis of the Open Network (TON) and its native digital currency Toncoin (TON), evaluating its current performance, ecosystem developments, strategic initiatives, and future forecasts for the years 2025-2026. TON features a highly scalable multi-chain architecture, dynamic sharding, and a robust proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. Its deep integration with a broad Telegram user base provides a unique and powerful channel for widespread adoption of web 3 technologies, as evidenced by the enormous growth of decentralized gaming (GameFi) projects and user-friendly wallet solutions. Strategic partnerships and significant funding initiatives, alongside an ambitious technical roadmap focused on layer two solutions and developer tools, are expected to enhance TON's capabilities and market position. Despite competition and inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, TON's core technology and unprecedented user acquisition potential position it as a strong contender in the evolving blockchain landscape, with various analyst forecasts indicating significant growth potential over the next two years.
1. Introduction to the open network (TON) and Toncoin
1.1. Historical context and vision (Telegram's inception)
The Open Network (TON) is a high-performance blockchain, initially envisioned and developed by the team behind the Telegram application. Its core vision was to provide a robust infrastructure for decentralized applications (dApps) and smart contracts, designed for speed and large transaction volumes, offering a scalable alternative to traditional networks like Ethereum.
The project, initially known as the Open Telegram Network, faced significant legal challenges with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These regulatory hurdles ultimately led to Telegram's withdrawal from the project. Following Telegram's departure, TON has evolved into a community-driven force, now maintained by the TON Foundation and its global community. This shift underscores the network's commitment to decentralization and resilience. It is important to note that while the original TON code referred to 'Gram' as its digital currency, it was never issued. The official currency of the Open Network is Toncoin (TON), while 'Test Toncoin' is used on the test network.
This historical trajectory highlights TON's ability to adapt and persevere in the face of adversity. Initially, the project relied on a strong centralized brand like Telegram, providing a potentially massive user base. However, when regulatory pressures led to Telegram's withdrawal, the project pivoted to a community-driven model. This forced shift towards decentralization, born from legal challenges, paradoxically enhances TON's long-term viability. It illustrates that the network does not depend solely on a single institutional entity, reducing individual points of failure and bolstering its credibility as a true decentralized platform. This resilience against external pressures is a significant positive indicator for its future sustainability and appeal to a broader audience of cryptocurrency users.
1.2. Core technology and architecture
Multi-blockchain design (master chain, workchains, shardchains)
TON employs an advanced multi-blockchain architecture, which is central to its design for scalability and efficiency. This architecture includes:
Masterchain: The core blockchain that oversees and coordinates important network operations and public information about the protocol, validators, and active workchains.
Workchains: Independent and parallel blockchains designed to handle specific functions and workloads, enhancing overall scalability.
Shardchains: Subdivisions of workchains that significantly increase transaction capacity by processing transactions simultaneously and individually.
This unique structure allows for the parallel execution of smart contracts and concurrent transaction processing, achieving horizontal scalability through dynamic sharding. TON's architecture is designed to handle 'millions of transactions per second', marking a significant improvement over traditional blockchain networks. One of the key innovations is the inter-shard communication protocol, which ensures seamless interaction and transfer of assets and data between different shards, allowing the network to operate as a cohesive system.
This architecture is a core competitive advantage. Traditional blockchains, such as early versions of Ethereum, face scalability issues due to the sequential processing of transactions on a single chain, leading to congestion and high fees. In contrast, TON implements a 'multi-chain with dynamic sharding' architecture, meaning the network is not just a single path but a highway with many dynamically adjustable paths (shards). Each shard operates independently but communicates seamlessly, enabling 'parallel execution of smart contracts and concurrent transaction processing'. This architecture allows TON to handle 'millions of transactions per second', fundamentally addressing the core limitation of many current blockchains. This is not just an improvement; it is an architectural paradigm shift that positions TON for truly widespread adoption, especially for applications like instant payments and high-volume decentralized applications.
Proof of Stake consensus mechanism (Catchain protocol)
TON employs an advanced consensus mechanism based on proof of stake (PoS) to secure its network and validate transactions. Validators, who stake a certain amount of Toncoin as collateral, are responsible for validating new blocks and adding them. They are selected based on the amount of tokens they have staked, incentivizing active participation and network security. Unlike proof of work (PoW) systems, proof of stake significantly reduces energy consumption, making TON a more environmentally friendly and cost-efficient blockchain. Consensus is achieved through a type of Byzantine fault tolerance (BFT) protocol, specifically known as Catchain. This protocol enhances security and ensures finality of transactions.
This choice of consensus mechanism reflects TON's commitment to efficiency and security. Proof of stake is inherently more energy-efficient than proof of work, aligning with global sustainability trends and reducing operational costs for validators. Additionally, proof of stake contributes to 'lower transaction fees' and 'super transaction speeds' by avoiding costly mining. The integration of the Byzantine fault tolerance (BFT) protocol, named Catchain, is a critical layer of security. BFT ensures the network's resilience even if some validators act maliciously, providing a high degree of security and finality. This combination of energy efficiency, low fees, and strong security makes TON very practical for widespread adoption, especially for applications requiring frequent, low-cost, and secure transactions, such as micropayments and decentralized finance.
TON Virtual Machine (TVM)
The TON Virtual Machine (TVM) is a core component responsible for executing smart contracts within the network. Designed as an optimized execution environment, it offers high performance, low computational costs, and high speed for executing smart contracts. TVM is specifically designed to fully leverage the unique infrastructure of TON, making it more efficient compared to other virtual machines like the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).
TVM supports a wide range of advanced functions, including hashmaps, arbitrary algebraic data types, various arithmetic operations (64-bit, 128-bit, 256-bit), bit and byte strings, 256-bit elliptic curve encryption, Weil pairings, sha256, and Merkle proofs. Recent updates to TVM have allowed developers to create a broader range of smart contracts and services, including the ability to develop zero-knowledge (ZK) protocols after extensive testing. The new version of Tact (1.1.5), a next-generation programming language for TON, introduced 7 new language features, simplifying smart contract development. TOLK 1.0, another new programming language, aims to further simplify smart contract development through an improved type system and automatic sequencing.
This development in TVM and developer tools indicates a developer-centric design supporting complex applications. TVM is a central component for executing smart contracts, optimized for 'high performance, low computational costs, and high speed', directly supporting TON's overall scalability goals. A direct comparison with EVM indicates a competitive advantage in efficiency. TVM supports advanced capabilities, including zero-knowledge protocols that place TON at the forefront of privacy-preserving technologies. New programming languages like Tact and TOLK 1.0 are part of a strategy to simplify smart contract development. This strategic investment in foundational infrastructure and developer tools is designed to attract a broader and more advanced developer base, which is essential for a thriving and innovative ecosystem.
2. Performance analysis of Toncoin (TON)
2.1. Market overview: current price, market cap, and trading volume
Recent data (from July 22 to 24, 2025) shows that the price of Toncoin generally ranges between 3.13 USD and 3.39 USD. TON's market cap is currently estimated between
7.77 billion and 8.39 billion USD, placing it roughly 21st among digital currencies. The 24-hour trading volume shows significant fluctuations, ranging from
276.97 million to 696.45 million USD. This wide range indicates active trading, but also suggests potential for significant price fluctuations in the short term. The circulating supply is approximately
2.47 billion TON, while the total supply is approximately
5.1 billion to 5.14 billion TON. Toncoin reached its all-time high (ATH) between
8.24 and 8.28 USD, while its all-time low (ATL) was between
0.3906 and 0.75 USD.
MetricValue (Approximate)SourcesCurrent Price (USD)3.13 - 3.39 Market Cap (USD)7.77 billion - 8.39 billion 24-Hour Trading Volume (USD)276.97 million - 696.45 million Circulating Supply (TON)2.47 billion TON Total Supply (TON)5.1 billion - 5.14 billion All-Time High Price (USD)8.24 - 8.28 All-Time Low Price (USD)0.3906 - 0.75 Current Market RankingApproximately 21
An analysis of these figures shows a disparity between the current price and the all-time high, indicating that Toncoin has experienced a significant price decline from its peak, but it also suggests substantial room for upward movement if market conditions and ecosystem growth align. The wide fluctuations in 24-hour trading volume indicate active liquidity and participation in the market, but the significant disparity indicates inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market. This means there is opportunity for traders and risk for long-term investors if not managed. Therefore, investors should be aware of the nature of high-risk, high-reward assets, where significant upside potential is accompanied by substantial price volatility. The current market situation, being well below the all-time high, may be seen as an attractive entry point for those optimistic about its fundamentals in the long term.
2.2. Historical price trends and key milestones
Toncoin was founded in 2019. Its initial emergence as the native digital currency of the open Telegram network was later released as an independent digital currency due to regulatory hurdles. Over the past 12 months, the price of TON has dropped by nearly 50%, indicating that it has not been immune to the broader market downturn or project-specific challenges.
However, recent data (as of July 23, 2025) shows positive short-term momentum, with TON rising 12.2% over 7 days and 25.6% over 30 days. This recent rebound coincides with broader market recovery trends. One significant achievement was the launch of the integrated TON wallet in Telegram for 87 million U.S. users, which led to a positive price response for Toncoin, rising 3% to $3.41 within 24 hours of the announcement. This integration is a major development in the infrastructure of the TON ecosystem.
The project’s history shows that the initial regulatory challenges, which led to its separation from Telegram, were a significant blow that could have derailed the project. However, despite this, Toncoin not only survived but has shown strong market activity and a recent price recovery. The fact that it remains among the highest-ranked cryptocurrencies after such a setback is noteworthy. The launch of the TON wallet within Telegram for U.S. users acted as a direct catalyst that led to a positive price response. This indicates that strong fundamental developments and strategic integrations can overcome historical regulatory shadows. The ability of TON to overcome and recover from significant regulatory challenges, alongside its ongoing evolution and strategic integrations, suggests a robust and adaptable project. This resilience is a key factor for long-term investor confidence, indicating that the project can withstand external pressures and find new avenues for growth.
2.3. Token economics and utility (transaction fees, staking, governance)
Toncoin (TON) is the native token and economic backbone of the Open Network. Its primary utility is to pay transaction fees within the network, which include executing smart contracts and sending payments. This ensures the operability of the network. Validators, who are crucial for maintaining network security and validating transactions, are incentivized and rewarded with Toncoin as part of the proof-of-stake consensus system. This mechanism encourages active and decentralized participation.
Toncoin holders can stake their coins to participate in the validation process, securing the network and earning rewards. The token also plays a critical role in governance decisions, allowing Toncoin holders to participate in the network's evolution and vote on proposals. This community-led governance model, manifested in the Society DAO, empowers token holders. Toncoin features a predetermined initial supply, contributing to its controlled scarcity, distinguishing it from some other popular blockchains that may have inflationary supplies. The circulating supply is approximately 2.47 billion TON, out of a total supply of 5.1 billion TON.
This multifaceted utility shows that TON is not just a speculative asset; it has core functionalities: transaction fees, staking, validator incentives, and governance. These benefits create intrinsic demand for the token. Every transaction, every interaction with decentralized applications, and every participation in staking requires TON. The scarcity model, characterized by a 'predetermined limited supply', indicates a controlled issuance schedule, which can contribute to scarcity and potentially support price appreciation over the long term, unlike inflationary models. A strong utility model ensures that the value of Toncoin is linked to actual usage and the growth of the TON network, rather than relying solely on speculative trading. This fundamental demand provides a more stable and sustainable basis for its long-term value compared to tokens with limited utility.
2.4. Current market sentiment and technical indicators
Current market sentiment for Toncoin (TON) is positive, influenced by recent news and discussions on social media. From a technical analysis perspective, prominent on-chain analyst Ali Martinez indicates that TON has the potential to rise to
5.30 USD if it maintains a price above the support level of 2.87 USD. This bullish outlook is supported by an upward trendline and positive community sentiment.
The relative strength index (RSI) for Toncoin is around 58.91, indicating that the coin is in a 'neutral zone'. This suggests that the price has room to increase before entering overbought territory, providing potential for further upward movement. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator shows early signs of bullish momentum, supporting positive forecasts.
However, notable short-term risks include declining trading volume, which has significantly decreased (e.g., 53.94% to $336.14 million in 24 hours according to one excerpt). This low volume may indicate a lack of strong buying pressure necessary for sustainable increases. Key resistance levels to monitor include
3.30 USD, 3.57 USD, and 3.60 USD, with a psychological barrier at 4.00 USD. Surpassing these levels may indicate a stronger breakout towards a target of 5.30 USD. Strong support levels maintain its value around 3.10 USD and 3.05 USD.
This analysis indicates a positive outlook with some caution in the short term. Positive market sentiment and bullish analyst forecasts create a favorable psychological environment. The relative strength index reading in the 'neutral zone' suggests that the coin has not yet reached overbought territory, leaving room for price increases without immediate reversal signals. However, 'declining trading volume' is an important warning sign. Low volume during price increases (or consolidation) may indicate weak conviction behind the move, making it susceptible to swift reversals or a lack of momentum to breach key resistance levels. While long-term fundamentals and strategic integrations (like the launch of the Telegram wallet) support the bullish case, the current technical weakness in trading volume suggests that short-term price movements may be constrained. Investors should closely monitor volume to confirm any sustainable bullish trend, as a lack of buying interest could lead to consolidation or even a decline despite positive sentiment.
3. The TON ecosystem: projects and development
3.1. Overview of decentralized applications (dApps)
The open network provides a robust and developer-friendly infrastructure for building decentralized applications (dApps) and smart contracts. TON's decentralized applications are designed to interact directly with the blockchain without the need for a centralized backend, primarily leveraging custom smart contracts. Developers enjoy flexibility in programming languages, with software development kits (SDKs) available for various languages. A notable trend is the development of decentralized applications as websites, particularly as mini-apps for Telegram (TMAs).
The TON Apps Center (tApps Center), a global catalog for Telegram web applications, and the Telegram mini-app platform have seen significant growth. In the fourth quarter of 2023, more than 140 new applications were added to the catalog, with monthly active users (MAU) reaching 12,000, an increase of 75% since November. One of TON's key strategic objectives is to attract
30% of Telegram's 900 million users by 2028, creating a seamless web 3 experience directly within the Telegram ecosystem.
This use of Telegram's massive user base provides a unique competitive advantage. The Telegram user base exceeding 900 million provides TON with an unprecedented and integrated audience for adopting decentralized applications. Developing decentralized applications as Telegram mini-apps and the seamless integration of the TON wallet within Telegram significantly lowers the entry barrier for average users. Users can interact with web3 applications directly within a familiar messaging environment, bypassing the complexities of the traditional cryptocurrency onboarding process. The rapid growth in monthly active users in the TON Apps Center and the viral success of GameFi projects indicate that this strategy is highly effective in attracting and retaining users. This deep integration with Telegram allows TON to leverage a broad audience that is not cryptocurrency-savvy, positioning it for massive user growth and network effects that are difficult for other blockchains to replicate. This could lead to significant expansion in the web3 user base, with TON at the forefront.
3.2. Major decentralized finance (DeFi) projects (like DeDust, STON.fi, Tonstakers)
The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector within the TON ecosystem is experiencing rapid growth, with total value locked (TVL) exceeding $757 million.
DeDust: Known as the largest decentralized exchange (DEX) on the TON network, launched in November 2022. It operates as an automated market maker (AMM) and had a total value locked of nearly $379 million at the time of reporting. DeDust offers decentralized asset exchanges, a bridge facility for transferring assets across networks, a decentralized wallet tracker, and opportunities for passive income through unilateral staking programs and liquidity provider incentives. Its native token is SCALE.
STON.fi: The second-largest decentralized finance protocol on TON, also an AMM-based DEX launched in 2022. It reported a total value locked of over $305 million and an average daily trading volume of $2 million. STON.fi facilitates decentralized exchanges of TON coins and jettons, is natively integrated into TON wallets such as Tonkeeper, allows liquidity pool creation, and provides cross-chain exchange services with 'nearly free' transactions. Its native token is STON, which serves as an incentive and governance token.
Tonstakers: The leading decentralized liquid staking platform on TON by total value locked. It allows TON holders to stake their coins and receive tsTON, a derived token for liquid staking that can be reused across other DeFi platforms. Tonstakers offers more than 3% APR, has attracted over 71,000 TON holders, and boasts over $260 million in total value locked. It features a low staking minimum (1 TON) and no time restrictions, allowing free entry and exit.
This growth in the decentralized finance sector signals the maturation of the financial landscape in TON and the influx of capital. The total value locked exceeding $757 million indicates a substantial flow of capital into the TON ecosystem. This is a critical metric for assessing the health and credibility of the financial layer of the blockchain. The presence of established decentralized exchanges like DeDust and STON.fi, with competitive total values locked and multi-functionalities (bridges, cross-chain exchanges), indicates a mature infrastructure for decentralized trading and liquidity provision. The success of Tonstakers highlights the growing demand for yield generation and capital efficiency within the TON ecosystem, where users can stake their TON while retaining liquidity through tsTON. A robust and growing DeFi sector is essential for attracting more users and developers, as it provides the financial fundamentals necessary for a comprehensive web3 experience. The increase in total value locked and the diversity of protocols suggest that TON is building a trustworthy and attractive financial layer, which could potentially enhance demand for Toncoin and foster deeper participation in the ecosystem.
3.3. Decentralized gaming projects (GameFi) and social projects (like Notcoin, Hamster Kombat, meme coins)
Gaming applications constitute a large part of the TON ecosystem, making up 30% of the total decentralized applications. This highlights the strategic focus on leveraging Telegram's user base for gaming.
Notcoin: A leading 'click-to-earn' game launched in November 2023, Notcoin achieved viral popularity, attracting millions of users to the TON and Telegram networks. It quickly garnered 650,000 users in its first week and over 5 million users by January 2024. After its token generation event (TGE) in May 2024, Notcoin was listed on major exchanges, launching with a market cap exceeding $900 million and later reaching $2.8 billion. It has since evolved, launching an 'explore' feature to reward users for contributing to TON ecosystem projects.
Hamster Kombat: Another highly popular 'click-to-earn' game on TON, launched in March 2024. It boasts a massive community with over 50 million subscribers on Telegram, reportedly attracting 239 million users in 81 days, with at least 3 million new users daily. Hamster Kombat hinted at its token generation event in the second half of 2024.
Meme coins: The TON ecosystem is also home to vibrant meme coin communities, including Resistance Dog (REDO), TON FISH (FISH), and Resistance Girl (REGI). These projects thrive on community engagement and marketing strategies, often leveraging Telegram's social features for growth.
GameFi projects are a strong driver of viral growth and user acquisition. Projects like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat have achieved 'viral popularity', attracting 'millions of new Telegram users into the web 3 world'. The 'click-to-earn' model and integration as Telegram mini-apps significantly lower the entry barrier, making web 3 accessible to a non-crypto-savvy audience. This gamified approach effectively capitalizes on current user behavior on Telegram. This strategy has led to 'massive growth in 2024' for the TON network in terms of user numbers and network activity. Gaming applications alone make up 30% of TON's decentralized applications, indicating the success of this specialization. The success of GameFi serves as a powerful and self-sustaining channel for user acquisition for the broader TON ecosystem. It showcases TON's unique ability to convert Telegram's massive social graph into on-chain activity, providing a clear competitive advantage in the race for widespread web 3 adoption. This usage contributes to network effects and potential demand for Toncoin in the long term.
3.4. Wallet and payment solutions (TON Wallet, Tonkeeper, micropayments)
TON is designed to support instant and scalable payments through its proprietary TON Payments protocol, making it ideal for microtransactions and small-value transactions that are often unfeasible on other blockchains due to high fees.
TON Wallet: The original TON wallet launched by Telegram for 87 million U.S. users, enabling seamless cryptocurrency transactions directly within the messaging app. Key features include:
Self-Custodial Functionality: Users retain full control of their private keys, enhancing security and privacy.
Split-Key Recovery Model: Simplifies the joining process by linking one part of the backup to the user's Telegram account and the other to their email, eliminating the need for traditional seed phrases.
Integration with the Telegram mini-app platform: Seamlessly connects with decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, payments, and digital marketplaces directly within Telegram, transforming it into a comprehensive web3 hub.
Storage, token exchange, and purchases without fees: Users can store assets, conduct token exchanges, and even purchase cryptocurrencies without fees through MoonPay integration.
Fiat On- and Off-Ramps: Support buying and selling cryptocurrencies using debit cards, bridging traditional finance with the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Tonkeeper: A popular self-custodial TON wallet designed for ease of use in receiving, purchasing, and spending cryptocurrencies. It leverages low TON blockchain fees and fast transactions. Tonkeeper offers features like direct payments, token swaps through decentralized exchanges, and options to earn cryptocurrency (staking, subscriptions). It is a non-custodial wallet, emphasizing user control, privacy, and cross-device portability. It integrates with various decentralized applications, including NFT markets (Getgems, TON Diamonds) and decentralized exchanges (STON.fi).
This ease of use and the bridge from web 2 to web 3 are crucial. The complexity of cryptocurrency wallets and onboarding processes (like seed phrases) is a major barrier to web 3 adoption. The split-key recovery model of the TON wallet and its direct integration into Telegram fundamentally simplifies the user experience. It makes cryptocurrency transactions 'as easy as sending a message'. This strategy effectively contributes to 'bridging traditional finance and the cryptocurrency ecosystem' and 'turning Telegram into a comprehensive web 3 hub'. It eliminates the need for external downloads or complex setups. By prioritizing ease of use and integrating cryptocurrency functions within a familiar web 2 application, TON is strategically positioned to attract and retain a broad audience of casual users. This focus on a seamless user experience is critical to achieving ambitious adoption goals and driving widespread utility for Toncoin.
4. Strategic initiatives and future roadmap (2025-2026)
4.1. Strategic partnerships and funding initiatives of the TON Foundation
The TON Foundation is actively pursuing strategic initiatives to enhance the Toncoin ecosystem and ensure its long-term stability. A significant development is the planned partnership with Kingsway Capital Partners to establish a new Toncoin treasury.
This joint entity aims to raise up to $400 million to support the operations of the Toncoin treasury, with a strategic intention to treat TON as a core financial reserve, reflecting the strategies adopted in other tier one systems. This move emphasizes a commitment to the long-term value of digital assets rather than holding traditional fiat currencies or bonds. The funding strategy includes a private investment in public equity (PIPE) structure, which is expected to enhance the liquidity and price stability of TON, especially if the treasury adopts long-term holding strategies to mitigate market volatility. Kingsway Capital is expected to be a key participant in this funding round. The capital raised will be exclusively used to purchase Toncoin, which is expected to enhance network security, expand developer incentives, and strengthen Toncoin's global presence through ecosystem development and strategic partnerships.
This initiative reflects a growing trend where companies increasingly treat tokens like Toncoin as institutional reserves, similar to MicroStrategy's approach with Bitcoin.
This funding and partnership signal institutional validation and long-term stability. The target of '400 million USD' is significant, indicating substantial institutional interest. The strategic transaction of TON as a 'core financial reserve' by a new treasury company, akin to MicroStrategy's strategy with Bitcoin, indicates a shift beyond speculative trading to official asset holding for the long term. This institutional backing, alongside a PIPE structure, is designed to 'enhance TON's liquidity and price stability', which is critical for attracting larger and more conservative investors and mitigating market volatility. This initiative signifies the maturation of the Toncoin market and a strategic effort by the TON Foundation to secure trust and institutional capital. It provides a strong vote of confidence in TON's long-term viability and potential for sustainable growth, bringing it closer to becoming a recognized digital asset at the institutional level. This could lead to increased market credibility and potentially more stable price movements over time.
4.2. Upcoming technical upgrades (Accelerator mainnet, layer two payment network, TOLK 1.0)
The TON Core team has revealed an ambitious and robust roadmap for the first half of 2025, focusing on important developments for its core chain.
Accelerator mainnet upgrade: This upgrade is a focal point of the 2025 roadmap, designed to improve network stability, efficiency, and transaction throughput. Key features include:
Partial light server support in config.json and overlays for aggregators to simplify block generation and verification.
The introduction of optimistic collation, allowing aggregators to generate blocks and send them in advance to validators, thus making block generation faster and more efficient. This mechanism aims to handle off-chain transactions, integrating them into a single state, which could significantly reduce network congestion and gas fees.
Improvements in validator operations, including a 'restore from backup' feature for rapid switching between servers and Telegram bots to inform validators of their status, penalties, and updates.
Layer two payment network: TON Core is progressing in the development and launch of a new layer two payment network, described as the 'Lightning Network' for TON, relying on payment channels. This network is designed to facilitate instant transfers with minimal fees and seamless asset exchanges. It will prioritize speed and low cost, aiming to handle high-frequency transactions, including on-chain trading and instant-response gaming. The prototype is currently in beta, with plans to add support for jettons and additional currencies.
TOLK 1.0: A new programming language, TOLK 1.0, is part of the roadmap, aiming to simplify smart contract development and improve performance within the TON ecosystem. It will feature an improved type system, support for automatic sequencing, and pattern-matching syntax.
Other major upgrades: The roadmap also includes new tools for validators, a revamped Toncenter API (with actions, pending transactions, simulations, and domains), improvements in user experience, collaborations with leading community products, and technical assistance for the BTC Teleport project to seamlessly integrate Bitcoin with the main network. The decentralized community organization (Society DAO) will provide a community-led governance model.
These planned upgrades indicate ongoing innovation aimed at achieving scalability and improving the developer experience. The detailed roadmap for the first half of 2025 demonstrates a proactive and aggressive approach to network development, indicating a commitment to continuous improvement. The 'Accelerator' mainnet upgrade and the layer two payment network directly focus on TON's core value: scalability, efficiency, and low transaction costs. These are not minor tweaks but fundamental enhancements designed to handle increasing loads and user demands. The introduction of TOLK 1.0 and improved validator tools indicates a strong commitment to the developer ecosystem. By streamlining smart contract development and validator operations, TON aims to attract more talent and enhance a more vibrant decentralized application landscape. These planned upgrades are critical for strengthening TON's competitive advantage against other tier-one blockchains. They indicate that TON is not relying on its current capabilities but is actively investing in positioning its infrastructure for the future to support greater adoption and more complex applications, which is essential for long-term growth and value appreciation.
4.3. Integration with Telegram and user adoption goals
TON's strategic ambition is to attract 30% of the 900 million monthly active Telegram users by 2028. The number of monthly active users on Telegram reached 950 million in 2024.
The number of users on the TON network is estimated to be around 2.5 million in 2024, indicating a relatively low penetration rate compared to the total user base of Telegram, but offering substantial growth potential. User adoption has seen rapid growth: approximately
42 million wallets on the network, with over 90% created in the first half of 2024. It is estimated that
387,000 wallets interact with the network daily. The number of daily active users on the TON blockchain has surpassed
5 million by mid-2024, primarily driven by widespread adoption of Telegram mini-apps. Simple 'click-to-earn' games like Hamster Kombat attracted over 55 million users in the second quarter of 2024, driving ecosystem growth.
These figures indicate ambitious user growth and expansion within the ecosystem. The Telegram user base exceeding 900 million provides a largely untapped market for web 3 adoption. The success of Telegram mini-apps and GameFi projects like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat demonstrates a highly effective and viral way to attract non-crypto-savvy users into the web 3 space, as reflected in the rapid growth of wallets and daily active users. The goal of reaching 30% of Telegram users by 2028 is highly ambitious, but if achieved, it would represent an unprecedented scale for web 3 adoption, potentially making TON the largest blockchain by user count. This unique relationship with Telegram and the established user acquisition strategy provide TON with a clear competitive advantage. It suggests that TON's growth trajectory is not solely reliant on traditional cryptocurrency market cycles but can leverage a massive social platform for tremendous organic user growth, which is a powerful long-term driver for network value and demand for Toncoin.
5. The competitive landscape: TON vs. major tier-one blockchains
5.1. Scalability, transaction speeds, and fees (compared to Ethereum, Solana)
TON (the Open Network):
Architecture: It uses a multi-chain architecture with dynamic sharding, dividing the network into a master chain, workchains, and shardchains. This design enables horizontal scalability, adapting to transaction load.
Scalability/transactions per second (TPS): It can handle millions of transactions per second. It achieved a verified world record of 104,715 transactions per second by Certik.
Transaction speed/response: It boasts 'super transaction speeds' and 'near-zero response times', ensuring quick confirmation and finality of transactions.
Fees: It offers 'lower transaction fees', typically very low and often less than $0.01. Transaction fees are fixed and do not fluctuate based on priority, and the deterministic ordering of transactions helps prevent front-running.
Ethereum:
Architecture: Originally a single-chain network using proof of work (PoW), it is now transitioning to proof of stake (PoS).
Scalability/transactions per second (TPS): Historically faced significant scalability issues and network congestion, with a typical TPS rate ranging from 15-30. Improvements are being made through layer two (L2) solutions like Rollups.
Fees: Transaction fees (gas fees) fluctuate widely and can be very high during network congestion, ranging from $1 to $20 or more.
Solana:
Architecture: A single-chain network achieving high productivity through an optimized consensus mechanism (proof of history combined with proof of stake) and efficient transaction processing.
Scalability/transactions per second (TPS): It can handle thousands to tens of thousands of transactions per second, often cited as 50,000 transactions per second.
Transaction speed/response: Known for its high productivity and low response times, making it suitable for high-frequency trading.
Fees: Transaction fees are relatively low, typically within a few cents.
TON's architecture provides a distinctive advantage for widespread adoption. TON's 'multi-chain with dynamic sharding' design is a key design choice that sets it apart. Unlike Ethereum, which heavily relies on layer two for scalability, TON allows for native horizontal expansion. While Solana is fast, its single-chain architecture has theoretical limits compared to TON's sharded approach as network load grows. TON's ability to handle 'millions of transactions per second' and 'extremely low fees' (less than $0.01) directly addresses the critical scalability and cost issues many other tier-one blockchains face, particularly Ethereum. The fixed, non-market-based fees and deterministic transaction ordering are crucial for institutional and regular applications where cost predictability and prevention of front-running are essential. This architectural superiority in scalability, speed, and low expected costs positions TON as a highly competitive platform for applications requiring maximum throughput, such as instant payments, large-scale GameFi, and comprehensive decentralized market applications. This makes it especially suitable for its integration with Telegram's vast user base, where large volumes and low costs are essential for a seamless user experience.
5.2. Developer ecosystem and innovation
TON: As a relatively emerging network, the TON developer ecosystem is expanding rapidly. It offers a wealth of development tools and documentation, including software development kits (SDKs) for various programming languages. Key innovations include new programming languages Tact (version 1.1.5) and TOLK 1.0, designed to simplify smart contract development through improved type systems and automatic sequencing. The TON Virtual Machine (TVM) has received significant updates, enabling the creation of a broader range of smart contracts and services, including support for zero-knowledge protocols (ZK). In 2024, TON had around 250 active developers, a relatively low number compared to other established public blockchains. However, the TON developer community on Telegram grew by 22.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, and mini-apps are attracting more developers due to the large Telegram user base.
Solana: It has an active developer community, providing rich support and resources, particularly strong in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
Ethereum: Currently the largest and most mature smart contract platform in terms of developer ecosystem, with the broadest support for decentralized applications (dApps). Ethereum's extensive tools and resources make it a preferred platform for many projects.
While the number of active developers in TON (around 250) is smaller than established giants like Ethereum, the 'rapidly expanding' ecosystem, significant growth in the Telegram developer community (22.8% in Q4 2023), and the ongoing release of new developer-focused tools (Tact, TOLK 1.0) indicate strong momentum. The advanced capabilities of TVM, including support for zero-knowledge protocols, enable TON to be at the forefront of privacy-preserving technologies, potentially attracting a specific high-value developer segment. The ability of developers to leverage Telegram's massive user base through mini-apps provides a unique and powerful incentive to build on TON, which may offset the currently smaller number of developers. These factors suggest that while TON may not compete with Ethereum in developer numbers, it is building a highly attractive environment for new and existing developers in the web3 space. This focus on developer experience and market access is critical for fostering long-term innovation and expanding the utility of the ecosystem.
5.3. User adoption and network activity
TON: It benefits from a close collaborative relationship with Telegram, providing a natural and vast user traffic pool. The network has experienced enormous growth in user numbers, with over
42 million wallets and an estimated 387,000 wallets interacting daily. The number of daily active users on the TON blockchain has surpassed
5 million by mid-2024, significantly driven by mini-apps on Telegram. The network processes more than
6 million daily transactions. The TON Foundation aims to integrate
30% of Telegram's 900 million users by 2028.
Ethereum: It has a large user base of over 100 million cryptocurrency users, but its adoption is primarily concentrated within the current cryptocurrency community.
Solana: Widely adopted for its high productivity and low response times, especially for applications requiring high performance.
This relationship with Telegram provides unparalleled user acquisition potential. The unique and deep integration of TON with Telegram offers direct access to a global user base of over 900 million people, an unmatched reach compared to other tier-one blockchains. The ability to attract users through familiar Telegram mini-apps and the streamlined TON wallet significantly reduces the typical friction associated with cryptocurrency adoption. This goes beyond the need for external downloads or complex seed phrases. Reported rapid growth metrics, such as 42 million wallets created, indicate that this strategy is highly effective. This ability to attract users from a massive social platform is a crucial competitive advantage for TON, allowing it to achieve tremendous user growth and network effects that are difficult for competitors to replicate.
6. Forecasts for the next two years (2025-2026)
6.1. Price forecasts and factors influencing value
Price forecasts for Toncoin over the next two years indicate differing paths, highlighting the inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market and the significant impact of developments within the TON ecosystem.
Some forecasts indicate a potential decline in the price of Toncoin by June 2025, estimating it to reach 2.55 USD, representing a decrease of 24.79%. Other forecasts for 2025 suggest a trading range between
2.34 USD and 3.38 USD, with an annual average price of 2.64 USD. However, more optimistic forecasts for 2025 suggest a higher range, with prices expected to reach
6.954 USD in the bullish scenario, potentially reaching $10 if market momentum and investor sentiment turn positive. Conversely, the bearish scenario for 2025 estimates a price decline to
1.464 USD.
For 2026, forecasts indicate potential growth. Some analyses estimate that the price of Toncoin could range between 2.67 USD and 9.21 USD, with an average price of 5.66 USD. Other forecasts for 2026 suggest a price of
3.4482 USD, up 5%. Other forecasts suggest that the price may reach
3.31 USD by 2026, based on an annual growth rate of 5%.
The value of Toncoin is influenced by several key factors:
Supply and demand in the market: The fundamental market dynamics are the primary driver of prices.
Market sentiment and speculation: Positive news and high-profile partnerships or endorsements (like Telegram's support) can boost the price of Toncoin, while negative news or fear in the market can lead to price drops. Current sentiment for TON indicates it is 'positive', with analysts predicting it could reach 5.30 USD if it maintains support at 2.87 USD.
Whale behavior (large holders): The behavior of large Toncoin holders can significantly impact its price. Large sell-offs can lead to price declines, while large purchases can drive it up.
Macroeconomic factors: Broader economic conditions in the cryptocurrency market can affect Toncoin's performance, as evidenced by recent declines in trading volume attributed to a broader altcoin market downturn.
Developments in the ecosystem: Technical upgrades (like the Accelerator mainnet, layer two payment network, TOLK 1.0), strategic partnerships (like Kingsway Capital), and user adoption goals through Telegram are strong demand drivers for Toncoin. These initiatives are seen as enhancing liquidity, stability, and long-term utility for the token.
6.2. Ecosystem growth and adoption path
The TON ecosystem is expected to see significant growth over the next two years, driven by its unique integration strategy with Telegram and ongoing technical improvements. The TON Foundation aims to onboard 30% of Telegram's 900 million users by 2028. If achieved, this ambitious target would represent a radical shift in the web3 adoption landscape.
GameFi projects play a crucial role in this growth, with 'click-to-earn' games like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat serving as very effective channels for attracting new users to the TON ecosystem. These games, integrated as mini-apps in Telegram, lower the entry barriers to web3, making them accessible to a broad audience that is not necessarily cryptocurrency-savvy. This trend is expected to continue, boosting the number of active wallets and daily transactions.
Furthermore, the growing decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions, such as DeDust, STON.fi, and Tonstakers, are expected to contribute to increasing total value locked (TVL) and attract more liquidity to the network. These platforms provide opportunities for yield generation and asset exchanges, enhancing the utility of Toncoin within the ecosystem.
The planned technical upgrades, including the Accelerator mainnet upgrade, the launch of the layer two payment network, and the TOLK 1.0 programming language, will enhance TON's foundational capabilities. These upgrades will improve scalability, reduce fees, and enhance the developer experience, attracting more projects and talent to TON. The focus on layer two solutions is critical for handling the high transaction volumes required to support the massive user base of Telegram.
6.3. Challenges and potential risks
Despite positive forecasts, TON faces several challenges and risks to consider:
Regulatory uncertainties: Although TON has overcome initial SEC challenges, the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies remains evolving and uncertain. Future regulatory changes may impact TON’s operations or adoption, especially in key markets.
Macro market volatility: Like all cryptocurrencies, Toncoin remains subject to broader macro market volatility. Market downturns or shifts in investor sentiment can lead to significant price drops, regardless of the project's fundamentals.
Intense competition: TON operates in a highly competitive landscape with other top-tier blockchains like Ethereum and Solana. While TON has unique architectural advantages, competitors are also investing in scalability and developer experience, requiring TON to constantly innovate to maintain its competitive edge.
User retention post-token generation events (TGEs): Projects like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat experienced massive spikes in users during their token generation events. However, maintaining this level of engagement and user retention long-term is challenging. Some data indicates that user retention still needs improvement after initial spikes.
Developer activity: Despite rapid growth, the number of active developers on TON (around 250) is relatively low compared to other major blockchains. Expanding the developer base is crucial to ensuring a continuous flow of innovative applications and services that enhance the network’s utility.
6.4. Overview
The outlook for Toncoin over the next two years suggests a promising growth path, supported by strong technical fundamentals, unique integration with Telegram, and ambitious strategic initiatives. TON's highly scalable architecture, low fees, and ability to process transactions quickly provide a solid foundation for widespread adoption. The relationship with Telegram serves as an unparalleled competitive advantage, enabling TON to reach a massive audience of non-crypto-savvy users, which is reflected in the rapid growth of GameFi applications and user-friendly wallet solutions.
The technical roadmap for 2025, including the Accelerator Mainnet upgrade, development of a layer two payment network, and launch of TOLK 1.0, demonstrates a commitment to ongoing innovation that will enhance the network's capabilities and improve the developer experience. Additionally, the $400 million fundraising initiative with Kingsway Capital Partners provides significant institutional support, further enhancing Toncoin's credibility and potential long-term stability.
While market volatility, competition, and regulatory challenges remain latent risks, TON's ability to adapt to historical obstacles, its focus on user acquisition, and its investment in foundational infrastructure suggest a project with significant resilience and growth potential. Varied price forecasts indicate that while the path may not be linear, substantial upside potential exists if the ecosystem continues to expand and strategic initiatives successfully achieve their goals.
7. Conclusion
Toncoin (TON) presents itself as a prominent player in the blockchain landscape, supported by advanced technical architecture and a unique strategic advantage in user acquisition. Its multi-chain architecture with dynamic sharding, strong proof-of-stake consensus mechanism (Catchain), and optimized TON Virtual Machine (TVM) provide a solid foundation for exceptional scalability, high transaction speeds, and extremely low fees. These capabilities directly address some of the fundamental challenges faced by other leading blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.
TON's deep integration with Telegram is the most significant differentiator. This relationship enables access to a massive global user base, facilitating seamless web3 adoption through Telegram mini-apps and user-friendly wallet solutions. The massive increase in wallet creation and daily active users, particularly driven by the success of GameFi projects like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat, illustrates the effectiveness of this strategy.
The ambitious roadmap for 2025-2026, focusing on mainnet upgrades, the development of a layer two payment network, and new programming languages, underscores TON's commitment to ongoing innovation. Strategic funding initiatives, such as the partnership with Kingsway Capital to create a Toncoin treasury, provide critical institutional support, enhancing the liquidity and stability of the token.
While Toncoin still faces challenges such as market volatility, intense competition, regulatory uncertainties, and the need to maintain long-term developer and user engagement, its ability to adapt and innovate indicates strong resilience. Forecasts for the next two years, while varied, indicate significant growth potential, driven by ongoing ecosystem expansion and increased user adoption. Collectively, these factors make a strong case for TON as a transformative force in the web3 space, with significant potential to cement its position as a leading platform for a decentralized future.