Brothers, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has been fluctuating less lately, as if it is stuck between $3560 and $3700. This trend is professionally called 'symmetrical triangle convergence', simply put, it means the price is swaying in an increasingly narrow range. Anyone who has played Texas Hold'em understands this, it’s like the last all-in, everyone is waiting for the last card to be revealed—both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal to decide whether to charge up or crash down.
There are several key points on the chart that indicate a big trend is coming:
Price is stuck: The lowest point of $3560 seems to have strong support (institutions are buying), while the highest point of $3700 seems to have huge pressure (many people are waiting to be liquidated).
Technical indicators are 'playing dead': The commonly used RSI is swaying in the middle, and the two lines of MACD are also stuck together, which is usually the calm before the storm.
Large institutions are buying: I heard that big institutions like BlackRock bought 18,500 ETH last night, just waiting for the price to drop to pick up cheap goods.
Great pressure above: There are a bunch of short positions (about 38,000 ETH) waiting to be liquidated near $3700; the market maker may not rest until this batch of shorts is squeezed out.
Conflicting news: On one side, there is bad news, as a large amount of previously locked ETH (worth $5.8 billion) is about to be unlocked, which may bring selling pressure; on the other side, there is potential good news, as regulators (SEC) are accelerating the review of BlackRock's ETH fund (ETF) application. This script seems familiar; last year, before the Bitcoin ETF was approved, there was also a wave of bad news to shake out the market!
So what will happen next? I think there are two possibilities:
Script 1: Soaring! If the ETH breaks through $3700 with a large bullish candle after the US market opens, those who short will be forced to stop-loss, potentially pushing the price up to $3800 or even higher. At this time, be particularly careful with the order book of exchanges (such as Coinbase), as high-frequency trading bots love to create false breakouts.
Script 2: Rebound after a fake fall! If the price first breaks below $3545, don’t panic! It is said that a large holder (whale) has placed a big buy order worth $162 million at $3500 waiting to take over. If it really falls to that area, it might be a good rebound opportunity.
Remember the key: Don’t guess the direction blindly! The price will choose a side on its own. Wait until it truly breaks through $3700 or falls below $3545, then follow the trend for safer operations. Last month, there was a similar triangular convergence, and after the price broke out, we reversed and shorted, capturing a $300 drop.
What we fear most now is not the ups and downs, but watching and missing out! On-chain data shows that a mysterious large holder has accumulated 120,000 ETH, aiming for $4000!
The last honest truth: Every significant drop in a bull market could be a good opportunity to pick up bargains!
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