"If 3650 is not broken, the bulls still have a glimmer of hope; if 3650 is lost, the bears will sharpen their knives!" - Today's script depends entirely on this line of life and death!
Shen Ce's explanation of today's ETH (July 25):
1. Current situation: A bit listless!
The price just closed near 3675, lower than the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands (3682). Simply put: it is now hovering in the "weak range", like a ball pressed under the surface of the water, and rebounding is a bit difficult.
Only one step away from the key lifeline of 3650! *If this position is broken, technical stop-loss orders and panic orders may come out in droves, which is prone to causing "stampede". (Personal opinion: This is like defending a city wall, once the city gate (3650) is broken, the morale of the army will be lost.)
2. Technical signal: Bears have a slight advantage
MACD: The fast line (DIF) is being suppressed by the slow line (DEA), and the column (MACD) is still green (-7.62). It shows that the "throttle" for the decline has not been released yet, and the bears are still exerting force. (*Case: Think about the last time the MACD had such a death cross green column, didn't it fall a little? We must also be vigilant this time*)
Bollinger Bands: The channel is narrowing (upper rail 3774, lower rail 3590), and the price is close to the lower edge. This is like a compressed spring, either accumulating energy for a rebound or collapsing directly. At this position, the risk of a downward break is greater.
Moving Average: A pile of "mountains" above the head (MA20/60/80/97 are all above 3700 or even 3799), like dark clouds covering the top. The price is firmly suppressed below, indicating that **the overall trend is still in the hands of the bears. Want to turn over? Difficult! Requires major positive news or huge amounts of funds.
3. Key positions (watch closely!):
Hitting upwards (heavy pressure):
3710: The first small goal, standing on it counts as breathing, can attract some followers.
3770: Strong pressure zone! Close to the upper rail of Bollinger Bands and the high MA20 (3799), want to touch this today? Unless there is a "divine assist" news or a huge amount of buying! The probability is low.
Smashing downwards (life and death):
3650: The core of the core! *This is today's "battle for supremacy"! If you hold it, the bulls can still organize resistance, and even expect a weak rebound; if it effectively breaks (such as a 1-hour solid yin line smashing through, or a high-volume break), don't hesitate, the short-term trend will completely turn bearish!
3610 & 3590: If 3650 collapses, look here for the next stop. 3590 is the lower rail of the Bollinger Bands, considered theoretical support.
3505: Deeper water level, if it really gets here, the market sentiment will be extremely pessimistic.
4. Volume: Reveals mystery
Only *52,000** was traded in the last hour, compared to the recent 5-day and 10-day average of **210,000**, it is simply a "ground volume"! What does it mean? No one is rushing to run away (the selling pressure is not heavy), but no one dares to buy the dip (the buying is weaker), everyone is watching!
The estimated volume is 180,000, indicating that *the market expects it to be lively in the afternoon/evening**, Europeans go to work, and the volatility will increase!
Shen Ce's exclusive views & operating ideas:
"Today is not a day to show off your skills, but a day to 'watch the show and look for opportunities' or 'counterattack defensively'!"
Core strategy: Stare at 3650! This is the "anchor" for all operations today.
Hold above 3650: You can gamble on a small oversold rebound with a small position (remember!). The target is 3710. Quick in and quick out, don't be greedy! At the same time, the stop loss must be hung below 3650 (such as 3640/3635), and if it breaks, admit the loss and leave.
3650 effectively broken (key!): Immediately enter defensive mode!
Don't rush to "buy the dip", be careful of buying halfway up the mountain! Patiently wait for it to drop to the support below (3610, 3590) to see if it can stabilize, or wait for a clear stop-loss signal (such as a super long lower shadow line, volume V reversal).
Volume is the key catalyst:
If a huge volume (far exceeding the estimated 180,000) suddenly breaks 3650 when falling, run away quickly and don't look back! This may be a panic sell-off.
If the rebound can continue to increase in volume and stand above 3710, then the quality of the rebound will be better.
"Shen Ce's soul asks: Today, do you choose to 'take chestnuts from the fire' above 3650 to bet on a rebound, or wait for the break to 'kick them when they're down' and go short? Or... just lie down and watch the show? Tell us your tactics in the comments section, let's watch the market together!"
