Early this morning, ETH suddenly plummeted, dropping to a low of $3,526, and the contract market instantly faced a liquidation of $3.86 million, with panic emotions rapidly sweeping the entire network. Just as retail investors were frantically cutting losses, a significant positive signal came from the US-EU tariff negotiations — the US has softened its stance, lowering tariffs from 30% to 15-20%, and the market immediately rebounded! ETH quickly surged with a $120 bullish candle and is currently stabilizing at 3,640, with both bulls and bears engaged in fierce combat at the 3,700 line.
1. Main whale players are quietly accumulating, ETH is poised to take off.
Do you really think this rebound is retail investors trying to bottom fish? Behind-the-scenes funds have quietly entered the game:
Institutions have snapped up 2.83 million ETH: in just two months, ETFs and listed companies have spent $5 billion on purchases, while ETH's issuance has only increased by 88,000, leading to a supply gap of 32 times! This is like 10 people fighting over a bowl of noodles, and the price is bound to soar!
The mysterious big player 'WLFI' keeps increasing positions: a veteran player invested $19.46 million, buying 5,608 ETH at an average price of $3,469, and has already made a floating profit of $1.45 million! While they are buying more on dips, are you in a hurry to cut losses and run?
Stablecoins have added $2.7 billion: new funds are flooding in, not entering the stock market or real estate, directly targeting the crypto market, with ETH as the first choice for sniping.
Review of the main force's wash trading methods: during the early morning plunge, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands was pierced, the KDJ death cross induced panic selling, while the OBV funding line was quietly rising — a typical 'false drop, real absorption' model!
2. Key battle at 3,700 for attack and defense, three major variables determine the outcome.
Returning to 3,700 is just the starting point; whether it can hold depends on how the three major variables perform:
The first flame: Tariff benefits are realized.
The deadline for US-EU negotiations is August 1; if the final agreement lowers tariffs to 15%, global risk assets may surge across the board. As the main force's preferred asset, ETH is bound to be at the forefront.
The second flame: Trump visits the central bank at night to provide support.
Trump will visit the Federal Reserve tonight; if expectations of interest rate cuts are released, the dollar will weaken on the spot, and ETH is likely to break through the heavy pressure zone of 3,750-3,800. Remember one thing: ETH and the dollar index are naturally opposed; when one rises, the other falls!
The third flame: Technical analysts test the gold knife position.
The ETH hourly chart is steadily forming an ascending flag, with the golden buying zone locked in at 3,580-3,620 (which is the area of that 'pin' spike early this morning). Once it breaks above 3,750 with volume, the next target is directly aimed at $4,100; the market is so enticing it makes your mouth water!
Profit mantra: Dare to catch the knife when it drops (set orders to defend 3,526), charge forward when it breaks through (stabilize above 3,700 to continue buying), don't be stingy with stop losses (set at 3,480) — the main force fears your discipline; if they can't wash you out, they've worked hard for nothing!
3. Ambush the next leading coin, funds are quietly placing bets.
If ETH can stabilize above the key level of 3,700 again, altcoin markets are expected to explode! Smart money has already quietly entered the arena:
The trading volume of DEX perpetual contracts skyrocketed to $137.3 billion, setting a new historical high, and decentralized leaders like UNI and DYDX are reaping the benefits.
The RWA track has absorbed a staggering $24.4 billion in hot money, ONDO and POLYX have become the 'new darlings' in the hands of institutions.
Staking yields have become the biggest weapon: institutions buying ETH are not just to speculate on prices but are also aiming for steady annual returns of 5-8%, with staking platforms like Lido and SSV making a killing.
Ultimate Spoiler: Can ETH reach $8,000 by the end of the year?
When Bitcoin is treated as 'digital gold' worldwide, Goldman Sachs strategists have already declared: the target for ETH is $8,000! The reason isn't complicated:
1. The spot ETF is attracting $300 million daily, with giants like BlackRock stepping up their positions.
2. ETH frequently appears in corporate earnings reports; Japanese company Metaplanet has gone all in, and Ethereum is becoming a consensus among institutions.
3. Severe supply-demand imbalance for ETH: the main force is sweeping up 50,000 pieces daily, but only 2,400 are being newly issued, and the gap is widening.
Today's major highlight: Trump's Federal Reserve visit + US-EU tariff negotiations may trigger intense volatility! If ETH breaks above 3,700 with volume, directly chase long positions aiming at 3,800; if there's a false breakout and it retraces, blindly scoop below 3,580. The main force's cost is also here, it's harder to cut them than it is to cut you!
