Reason Analysis for Pullback

  1. Macroeconomic Pressure

    • Federal Reserve Policy: September Rate Cut Expectations Rising (Probability 61.2%), but Market Sentiment is Cautious, US Dollar Index Falls Below 100, Short-term Volatility Intensifies.

    • Geopolitical: Global Tariff Policy Upgrades (e.g., Trump Increasing Tariffs) Trigger Risk Aversion, Traditional Risk Assets Under Pressure.

  2. Technical Signals

    • 200-Day Moving Average (200DMA): BTC and COIN50 Index (Top 50 Tokens) Have Both Fallen Below This Key Average, Historical Data Shows This Signal Often Indicates the Early Stages of a Bear Market.

    • Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index Drops from 70 to 67 (in the 'Greed' Range), Investor Sentiment Cooling.

  3. Structural Risks

    • ETF Fund Outflow: Bitcoin ETF Recently Experienced Net Outflow (e.g., ARKB Single-Day Outflow of $77.46 Million), Some Institutions Take Profits.

    • Altcoin Liquidity Crisis: Lack of New Funding Support, Market Cap Share Continues to Decline.

Is a Bear Market Coming? Key Divergence Point

  1. Evidence Supporting a Bear Market

    • Technical Indicators: BTC and COIN50 Index Falling Below 200DMA, Altcoin Market Cap Halved, Consistent with Historical Bear Market Characteristics.

    • Funding Situation: Venture Capital Shrinking, ETF Fund Outflows, Market Depth Worsening.

  2. Arguments Against a Bear Market

    • Long-term Fundamentals: The Bitcoin Halving Effect (April 2024) and Institutional Holdings (e.g., MicroStrategy) Still Support Long-term Bull Market Logic.

    • Macroeconomic Shift Expectation: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, it may trigger a rebound in risk assets.

Future Scenarios and Strategy Recommendations

Scenario A: Short-term Rebound (Probability 40%)

  • Trigger Conditions: BTC Holds Above $117,300 Support, Federal Reserve Releases Dovish Signals.

  • Strategy:

    • Build Positions in Mainstream Coins Gradually (Increase Position by 10% Every 5% Drop).

    • Focus on Oversold Rebound in High Liquidity Altcoins (e.g., ETH, SOL).

Scenario B: Deep Bear Market (Probability 60%)

  • Trigger Conditions: BTC Falls Below $111,000, Macroeconomic Environment Deteriorates.

  • Strategy:

    1. Defensive Allocation: 50% of Funds Transferred to USDT for Stable Returns.

    2. Hedging Tools: Use 1% of Capital to Buy Put Options to Hedge Against Black Swan Risks.

    3. Dollar-Cost Averaging Window: Wait for BTC to Test $100,000 Before Starting Weekly Dollar-Cost Averaging.

Summary and Operating Guidelines

  1. Short-term: Control Positions (Single Stop Loss ≤ 2%), Avoid Leverage, Pay Attention to Key Support at BTC $117,300 and ETH $3,500.

  2. Long-term: Bull Market Cycle Not Confirmed to End, Pullback May Be a Dollar-Cost Averaging Opportunity, Focus on Tracking Macroeconomic Policy in September.