Behind Trump's "release" of Powell: BTC key levels in turbulence, institutional undercurrents rising
On July 23, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statement "Trump will not fire Powell" pressed the pause button on the months-long "Federal Reserve personnel turmoil." The ripples of this political game are quietly spreading to the crypto market—Bitcoin (BTC) has been repeatedly tugging near the $117,000 pressure point, with the collision between technical and policy factors adding uncertainty to this volatility.
I. Political Game: The Independence of the Federal Reserve Becomes the Focus, Will BTC Policy Expectations Change?
The conflict between Trump and Powell is no longer a secret. The former has repeatedly pressured for accelerated rate cuts, while the latter has steadfastly adhered to a "data-dependent" principle, even refusing to acknowledge the presence of "luxurious facilities" during congressional testimony regarding the Federal Reserve building renovation. Trump's clear statement that he "will not fire" Powell seems like a compromise, but it actually conceals deeper implications:
Legal Restrictions: According to U.S. law, the Federal Reserve Chair serves a 5-year term and the president has no direct authority to dismiss them. If Trump forcibly removes Powell, it would trigger a constitutional crisis, potentially severely damaging market confidence.
Policy Continuity: Powell's term lasts until May 2026, and if a replacement is made at that time, the new chair must be approved by the 12 members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), posing challenges to policy continuity.
Market Reaction: On July 17, Trump's "dismissal controversy" caused BTC to plummet by 4.6% in a single day, but after this "release" statement, market sentiment quickly stabilized, indicating that investors still have expectations for policy stability.
II. Technical Aspect: BTC is Stuck at the "Watershed," Key Levels Determine Direction
Based on the latest technical analysis charts, BTC is currently in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Range Volatility: Prices are forming a "watershed" in the $115,000 - $118,000 range, with $118,300 above as a strong resistance level and $115,800 below as a key support level. If the upper boundary is broken, it may trigger a downward target of $117,500; if support holds, a rebound above $120,000 is possible.
Moving Average Signals: The 5-day moving average ($4,385) and the 10-day moving average ($4,110) have crossed, indicating a weakening of short-term momentum, but no clear death cross has formed, suggesting a balance of bullish and bearish forces.
Volume Indicator: The recent volume histogram shows a decline in market participation, with funds still waiting for signals from the policy front.
III. Institutional Trends: Policy-friendly and Capital Undercover Wars, Long-term Value of BTC Becomes Prominent
Although short-term volatility has intensified, institutional positioning in BTC is still accelerating:
Political Endorsement: The Trump administration is promoting the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" plan, and the White House cryptocurrency summit has released positive signals, with states like Texas already beginning to allocate BTC assets.
ETF Fund Flow: On July 19, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of over $500 million in a single day, indicating that traditional capital continues to enter the market.
Technical Upgrades: Bitcoin Layer 2 network expansion, Taproot Assets, and other protocol upgrades are driving its transformation from "digital gold" to "financial infrastructure," with long-term value recognized by institutions.
IV. Personal Opinion: Volatility is an Opportunity, Pay Attention to Signals
Policy Aspect: At the August Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, Powell's speech may reveal the path to interest rate cuts. If a "dovish" signal is released, BTC could break through resistance and soar to $120,000!
Technical Aspect: Closely watch the $115,800 support level. If it closes above this level for three consecutive days, the probability of a rebound exceeds 60%; if it breaks down, caution is needed at the $110,000 mark. Conversely, it could surge to $125,000, creating history.
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The "reconciliation" between Trump and Powell has temporarily eased market concerns about policy uncertainty, but the "watershed" battle for BTC is far from over. The game between technical and policy factors is like the pressure point at the top of the range—breakthrough requires volume support, and the undercurrent of institutional capital may be the key to opening up new scenarios.
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