Original Title: Is it still worth farming Polymarket's airdrop?
Original Author: @mattdotfi, Castle Labs
Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
This article will analyze in detail whether it is still worth participating in Polymarket airdrop mining at this stage.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction platform based on the Polygon blockchain that allows users to bet on events by choosing between two possible scenarios. Polymarket gained public attention due to betting events in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, odds on Polymarket indicated that Donald Trump was more likely to succeed than Kamala Harris, leading many to place bets on Polymarket, and it has become increasingly popular after Trump's successful campaign.
Polymarket currently does not have an official token, but the team has hinted multiple times that they will issue a token. They have completed three rounds of cryptocurrency venture funding, including last week's Series C funding. Although we know little about this round, sources in June indicated that they hope to achieve a valuation of over $1 billion in a $200 million funding.
Source: Crunchbase
About Airdrops
A fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1 billion for Polymarket tokens seems to be the market consensus, but we also need to consider the following factors:
Conservatively, it is estimated that a maximum of 10% of the total supply will be airdropped to traders, as they are the only eligible individuals for receiving the airdrop; Polymarket does not have liquidity providers.
The sustainability of Polymarket activities may also be important, as it means you still have enough time to participate.
Polymarket's prediction market has been running for quite some time, and CC2Ventures hinted that a snapshot was taken last year.
If you want to participate in airdrop mining, you need to place bets in the market. The following data can be referenced:
· Cumulative trading volume reached $15.7 billion.
· On average, there are 24,000 active wallets placing bets on Polymarket each day.
Data Source: Dune Analytics
· Currently, there are a total of 1.2 million wallets that have interacted, half of which have placed bets more than 5 times.
· To be among the top 10% of traders, your average bet amount must exceed $500.
Data Source: Dune Analytics
Conclusion
If the snapshot has not yet occurred, to qualify for the airdrop, you should place bets in markets that are advantageous and most likely to develop as you expect. Additionally, to enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed $500. You may also need to place bets in multiple markets and remain active at least once a week.
If you want to participate in this airdrop mining, you must first ensure that you can bear trading losses in the three to four-digit range, as over 90% of traders on any betting/trading platform will lose money in the long run. Because the expected value (EV) is sufficiently high, it can offset the expected losses.
In my opinion, I would only participate in airdrop mining if the tokens are expected to launch with a valuation in the billions; the activity on the platform and the average bet amount are difficult for ordinary users to bear. Statistically, if you bet on these prediction markets, you are expected to lose in the long run.
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