Written by: @mattdotfi
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
This article will analyze whether it is still worth participating in Polymarket airdrop mining at this stage.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction platform based on the Polygon blockchain that allows users to place bets on events by choosing between two possible scenarios. Polymarket gained public attention for betting events related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, odds on Polymarket indicated that Donald Trump was more likely to succeed than Kamala Harris, leading many people to place bets on Polymarket, and it became increasingly popular after Trump's successful campaign.
Polymarket currently does not have an official token, but the team has hinted multiple times that they will issue a token. They have completed three rounds of cryptocurrency venture capital funding, including last week's C round. While we know little about this round, sources in June indicated that they hope to achieve a valuation of over 1 billion USD in a 200 million USD funding round.
Source: Crunchbase
About the airdrop
It seems to be market consensus that Polymarket tokens have a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of 1 billion USD, but we also need to consider the following factors:
Conservatively, it is expected that a maximum of 10% of the total supply will be airdropped to traders, as they are the only ones eligible to receive the airdrop, and Polymarket does not have liquidity providers.
The sustainability of Polymarket activities may also be important, as it means you still have enough time to participate.
Polymarket's prediction market has been running for quite some time, and CC2Ventures hinted that a snapshot was taken last year.
If you want to participate in airdrop mining, you need to place bets in the market. The following data can be referenced:
Cumulative trading volume reached 15.7 billion USD.
An average of 24,000 active wallets place bets on Polymarket every day.
Data source: Dune Analytics
Currently, there are 1.2 million wallets that have interacted, with half having placed bets more than 5 times.
To be among the top 10% of traders, your average bet amount must exceed 500 USD.
Data source: Dune Analytics
Conclusion
If a snapshot has not yet been taken, to qualify for the airdrop, you should place bets on markets that are advantageous and most likely to develop as you expect. Additionally, to enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed 500 USD. You may also need to place bets in multiple markets and maintain activity at least once a week.
If you want to participate in this airdrop mining, you should first ensure you can bear trading losses in the three to four-digit range, as over 90% of traders on any betting/trading platform will lose in the long run. The expected value (EV) is high enough to offset the anticipated losses.
In my view, I would only participate in airdrop mining at this stage if the token is expected to launch with a valuation in the billions. The activity on the platform and the average bet amount are difficult for ordinary users to bear. Statistically, if you bet on these prediction markets, you will certainly incur losses in the long run.