“How to seize ARB's 'golden rebound' after a sharp decline? 0.48 value anchor + 1:2.8 risk-reward strategy, miss it and wait a year!”

【Summary in One Sentence】

After a sharp short-term drop, ARB is currently at 0.463, testing the 0.48 POC value anchor; RSI 38 oversold + buying orders on the order book + positive funding rate, leaning towards a rebound. Aggressive buy on pullback at 0.458-0.461 LVN, stop loss at 0.454, target 0.48-0.49 HVN, risk-reward ratio 1:2.8; if it breaks down 0.454 with volume, then flip to short until 0.44. Risks: continuous decline in positions, macroeconomic headwinds, liquidity gaps.

【Key Interval Structure】

1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 0.480 (298M trading volume, Up 56%), the core of long-short balance.

2. High Trading Volume Area: HVN 0.465, 0.472, 0.480, 0.484, forming an upper resistance zone, easy to pull back.

3. Low Trading Volume Gap: LVN 0.458-0.461 (trading volume <18M), a quick price crossing area, can buy on pullback; lower LVN 0.365-0.370 is an extreme bearish target.

4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Area: 0.404-0.497, current price 0.463 is in the middle area, neither overbought nor oversold.

【Momentum Verification】

POC area Up 56% slightly advantageous; recent 4h trading volume increased 1.28 times, short-term buying pressure returning. OB 1.29 buying advantage, but OI 24h -2.66%, long positions are still being reduced, need to confirm a breakout above 0.48 for strength.

【Market Cycle】

At the end of a short-term pullback in a mid-term upward channel; 14d OI +4.35%, price stable, indicating healthy consolidation.

【Trading Strategy】

Aggressive: Buy at current price 0.463-0.464, stop loss at 0.454 (-2%), target 0.480/0.484, risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.

Conservative: Wait for a pullback at LVN 0.458-0.461 with ≥1.5 times volume bullish candle before re-entering, stop loss as above.

Cautious: If it breaks down with volume below 0.454, flip to short until 0.440 HVN, stop loss at 0.458.

【Risk Warning】

1. Continuous decline in contract positions, a rebound without volume may quickly fail.

2. Macroeconomic risks or a BTC plunge could lead to collapse.

3. Large slippage in LVN area, do not over-leverage; single trade risk ≤1% of funds.

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