The current price of TON is 3.332, having tested above the VPVR core POC (2.99). The 24-hour contract volume increased by 15.95% but was accompanied by a sharp drop of -23.6% in the long-short ratio, presenting a short-term 'volume-induced stagnation' structure. If the buyer liquidity at 3.25–3.28 holds, a rebound to 3.55–3.71 can be anticipated; losing 3.20 will confirm a breakdown, requiring decisive stop-loss.

Key interval structure
• Value anchor: POC 2.99, with nearly 48M transactions, Up/Down=58.6%, long-short temporarily balanced.
• High volume buffer zone: HVN 3.00–3.02 & 2.96–2.97, pullbacks often result in 15-30 minute level rebounds.
• Low volume gap: LVN 3.12–3.15 (above) and 2.72–2.74 (below), both breakthroughs and breakdowns can accelerate.
• 70% trading area: 2.80–3.47, current price is in the upper half, not overbought but close to the upper band.

Momentum validation
• Recent 4-hour candle: price up 0.89%, net contract outflow -150k, volume-price divergence, main force locking in short-term profits.
• Bollinger Bands: price is at the middle band at 40.8%, RSI 36.8, still in a weak oscillation.
• Order book: buy orders near the wall at 448k vs sell orders at 356k, the difference is +92k, short-term buy orders are dominant, but the distant sell wall at 3.45–3.55 is thick at 179k, forming a natural resistance.

Market cycle judgment
The weekly chart is still in a major bearish market rebound (-51% vs 12M capital flow), the daily chart is in a 'decline-consolidation-re-selection' phase; currently testing the upper edge of consolidation, if it breaks through 3.55 with volume, it can be seen as a continuation of the daily rebound, otherwise, it will return to oscillation between 3.0–2.8.

Trading strategy (short-term quick in and out)
Aggressive: Re-test the inside of LVN at 3.28–3.30, 15m Up Volume > 60% and a PinBar/Engulfing appears, then go long; stop loss at 3.20 (below HVN), target 3.55 (above LVN), risk-reward ratio = 1:3.3.
Conservative: Wait for a 1h close above 3.35 and a re-test without breaking, then enter at 3.32–3.34, stop loss at 3.25, target 3.50/3.71, risk-reward ratio = 1:2.5.
Cautious: If it breaks below 3.20, short on the rebound at 3.22–3.24, stop loss at 3.28, target 3.00–2.97, risk-reward ratio = 1:2.8.

Risk control and exit
• Key failure: Position volume turns upward and long-short ratio rises > 4.0, or spot volume breaks below 2.97.
• Position: Single trade risk ≤ 1%, within 3x leverage.
• Time filtering: Avoid 30 minutes before the opening of the US East and major macro event windows.

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