Goldman Sachs predicts that the basic import tax in the United States will increase from 10% to 15%, with copper and key mineral taxes rising up to 50%, putting inflationary pressure and slowing economic growth.

Adjusting forecasts based on tax developments, Goldman Sachs has reduced its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1%, while also changing its inflation forecasts for the 2025-2027 period, reflecting the clear impacts of the new tax policy.

MAIN CONTENT

  • The U.S. is expected to increase the basic import tax from 10% to 15% and the taxes on copper and minerals to 50%.

  • Goldman Sachs has slightly adjusted its inflation forecast for 2025-2027 due to tax impacts.

  • Increasing taxes reduces U.S. GDP growth, and Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 1%.

Why is the U.S. planning to raise basic import taxes and mineral taxes to 50%?

According to David Mericle, Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs in the United States, the U.S. plans to raise the basic import tax from 10% to 15%, especially with copper and key minerals taxes soaring to 50%. This is part of a strategy to protect domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on crucial imported raw materials.

This tax policy aims to regain competitive advantage for U.S. domestic production and to boost domestic mining and processing output. However, it also poses risks of increasing production costs for goods, thereby creating inflationary pressure.

"Increasing taxes on copper and essential minerals will raise input costs, creating difficulties for industries that use imported raw materials."

David Mericle, Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs, July 23, 2023

How does the increase in import taxes affect the inflation forecast for the United States?

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its core inflation forecast for the 2025-2027 period based on the impact of increased import taxes. The core inflation for 2025 has been slightly lowered from 3.4% to 3.3%, but continues to be adjusted upward from 2.6% to 2.7% in 2026, and from 2.0% to 2.4% in 2027.

David Mericle estimates that the new tax levels will increase core prices by about 1.7% over the next 2-3 years. This increase mainly comes from rising input material costs affecting the final product prices.

How do tax increases affect U.S. GDP growth?

Increasing import taxes will reduce U.S. GDP growth in the short and medium term. Goldman Sachs forecasts GDP will decrease by 1 percentage point in 2025, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Based on these impacts, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to only 1%.

The decline in growth stems from decreased purchasing power and rising production costs, diminishing the incentive for economic expansion. This is an important signal to note when analyzing the economic outlook of the United States in the near future.

"The current tax policy results in a lower-than-expected GDP for 2025, clearly showing the prolonged negative impact of tax measures on the U.S. economy."

David Mericle, Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs, July 23, 2023

What other factors could impact economic forecasts besides import taxes?

In addition to import taxes, other factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical situations, and global supply chains also significantly affect growth and inflation forecasts. For instance, a tightening monetary policy may contribute to reduced growth but better control of inflation.

Therefore, Goldman Sachs' forecasts integrate multiple variables to provide a comprehensive assessment. Adjusting forecasts helps investors and businesses gain insights and prepare appropriately for market developments.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do tax increases affect U.S. consumers?

Raising taxes causes prices of imported goods and domestic production to rise, putting pressure on consumer spending and reducing the real purchasing power of the public.

How reliable is the adjusted inflation forecast?

Goldman Sachs is a reputable organization with a team of top economic experts in the United States, making forecasts based on real data and modern analytical models.

How long could the decline in GDP growth last?

According to the forecast, the decrease in growth will last at least until 2027 with diminishing effects, although it heavily depends on subsequent economic policies.

What should businesses prepare for before the new tax policy?

Businesses should optimize cost management, diversify supply sources, and enhance domestic production capacity to reduce risks from import taxes.

Is there a possibility of tax policy being adjusted back?

Tax policies may change depending on economic developments and government policies; investors should closely monitor updates from relevant authorities.

Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/goldman-sachs-du-bao-thue-tang-15/

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