“Is WIF 1.3 USD a peak or a springboard? 15% gap ambush, dare to follow?”

Summary in one sentence

WIF is close to the upper Bollinger band at 1.29 USD (87% position), with a 24h trading volume increase of 70% pushing it up by 8.6%. Short-term funds have continuously reduced their positions for 4 hours. The main force may sell wall at 1.5~2.0 USD to offload; if it retraces to 1.16~1.17 USD and does not break the LVN, it can be longed with a stop loss at 1.15, targeting 1.32/1.38, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4; if it breaks below 1.15 with high volume, the trend will reverse, and immediate stop loss is required.

Key interval structure

• Value anchor (POC): 1.042 USD, trading volume 258M, a watershed for medium-term bulls and bears.

• HVN buffer: 1.00~1.05 USD, 1.08~1.09 USD, often seeing 30~60 min rebounds upon retracement.

• LVN gap: 1.15~1.17 USD (the vacuum area left by the previous surge), most likely to retrace quickly.

• 70% trading volume area: 0.84~1.27 USD, the current price is at the upper edge, short-term overbought.

Momentum verification

• 1.15~1.17 USD LVN: Up Volume 71%, buyer dominance, consistent with the logic of retracing for longs.

• Above 1.30 USD, Up Volume is only 46%, selling pressure is rising, chasing high risks being trapped.

Auxiliary indicators

• MA200: 1.120, deviation +15%, excessive deviation, needs mean reversion.

• Contract positions: reduced by 22.7% in the past 24h, bulls closing positions pushing prices up, not a healthy increment.

• Order book: distant sell wall at 2.0 USD with a volume of 132M USDT, difficult to break through in the short term.

Market cycle

The medium-term is still in the secondary pullback phase of a bull market: 14d net capital outflow of 109M, but the price has risen by 34%, which belongs to “low-volume rise,” beware of false bullish signals.

Trading strategies

Aggressive: current price 1.29, lightly enter long, stop loss 1.26 (-2.3%), target 1.32/1.38, risk-reward ratio 2.1.

Conservative: wait for a retracement to 1.165 ± 0.005 to enter, stop loss 1.15 (-1.3%), target 1.32, risk-reward ratio 2.4.

Cautious: if it breaks below 1.15 and rebounds below 1.16, go short, stop loss 1.18, target 1.10, risk-reward ratio 2.0.

Risk control tips

• Key failure: if 1.15 USD is lost or if the 1h close returns below the Bollinger band middle line at 1.23.

• Position: single transaction risk ≤ 1%, avoid UTC+8 20:00 high volatility period.

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