Wenhua discusses hot topics:
The recent market hasn't seen much new activity; the main theme during this period has been tariffs + constant criticism of Old Bao. Bao has basically been standing on the cutting edge every day, and Chuanzi doesn't plan to back down. It is expected that there will be more activities before the interest rate meeting at the end of the month.
However, this week, Old Bao hasn’t brought any new surprises, which means a potential hidden risk has been eliminated from the market, allowing for some breathing room. But don’t expect a big market trend; with the current situation, there’s no clear good or bad news, so it will likely continue to range-bound.
The U.S. stock market is similar; the Q2 earnings season has arrived, and institutions are trying to avoid landmines, fearing to step on a bomb and blow up their positions. So overall, it’s also a cautious wait-and-see period; we’ll see what the earnings reports bring in batches, and the short-term direction is still undecided.
Returning to the market, Bitcoin on the daily chart is still in a range-bound pattern, with the core position at 119.5k. In simple terms, if it breaks 121k and then retraces to stabilize at 119.5k, there’s a chance to reach a new high of 125k, and if it goes up, we can consider shorting at high levels.
If 119.5k can't hold, then wait for the liquidity below to be plundered. First, look at 115.5k, and then the daily bullish order zone at 110k. In simple terms, it feels uncomfortable unless there’s a drop; it needs to wash out some people before going back up.
Ethereum is also hovering at high levels; if it can break 3828, then 4000 will basically be stable. Support is around 3600, and a pullback to 3636-3616 is the low buy zone.
Currently, don't blindly chase highs or sell lows between 3850-3600; this phase is just about tricking people. Short positions can be taken, but it's not friendly for new investors; it's better to stick to low longs.
Let’s discuss which phase the current market is in. I see it still hesitating in the bullish phase. To translate that, it means the bears have failed to reach the top and are starting to give up, with most people in a wait-and-see mode.
Those who missed out are waiting for a pullback while fearing to miss the chance; they don’t dare to chase and can’t hold on, making the market anxious. This is a typical second phase, so true madness is still early.
Speaking of reality, some recent operations by micro-strategy companies have been blatantly exploiting investors. The boss holds coins himself, then sets up a listed company, exchanges coins for stocks, claiming successful fundraising.
The coins are mine, the company is mine, and the stocks are mine; American stock investors are the last ones to take over. This routine is similar to the ETF application; as long as the application is submitted, the market can take advantage of it. Whether it gets approved or not isn’t important, as long as it can pump the market.
So if you ask me, I only trust the big three like BlackRock when it comes to ETFs; don’t believe the others, they’re just riding the wave. This market trend might last until mid-August, and major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL will also rotate for another wave. Don’t get too excited chasing highs, nor should you just wait for the chosen low point.
