Bitcoin is currently at a critical stage of a new upward cycle. Last week, BTC's price successfully refreshed its record, reaching an all-time high of $122,838. However, the market entered a period of consolidation in the following trading days, currently trading around $119,765, slightly below the $120,000 round number.

Consolidation structure evident, bulls facing psychological resistance

From a short-term perspective, BTC shows a clear wide fluctuation pattern on the 1-hour chart. The structural range is as follows:

  • Upper resistance: $120,000

  • Mid-axis support: $118,000

  • Lower support zone: $116,800 – $117,000

This fluctuation range not only limits the short-term price breakout but also becomes the focal point for traders' games.

The prediction market shows clear divergence, with bullish forces appearing slightly strained.

According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Myriad, market participants have significantly differing views on whether BTC can maintain above $120,000 this weekend. Current betting data shows that only 47% believe BTC can hold above $120,000, reflecting insufficient market confidence, and traders' attitudes are slightly cautious.

Technical indicators: key turning points approaching, direction about to be chosen

On the technical side, Bitcoin is currently approaching the downward trend line formed since the historical high on July 14, which constitutes a potential technical turning point area. In the short term, it is in a sideways state, with both bulls and bears in a tug-of-war here.

  • Squeeze Momentum Indicator: The 4-hour chart shows that BTC is in a volatility compression phase, indicating that a directional choice is imminent. Once the 'squeeze starts' state is lifted, the market may experience significant volatility.

  • Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 13: below 20 indicates a weak market trend, and the current upward momentum is weakening, lacking strong trend support. Unless the ADX rebounds above 25, the current rise lacks persuasiveness.

  • RSI index is at 59: hasn't entered the overbought zone (>70), but indicates that there is still moderate buying power in the market.

  • The 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA are in a bullish arrangement: the current price is above the 50-day EMA (about $116,000), and the EMA arrangement structure still maintains a medium-term upward pattern.

However, it should be noted that during the current upward process, the trading volume has slowed down. This means that even if it breaks through historical highs, if there is a lack of accompanying trading volume, the breakout could become a 'false move.'

Market Outlook: Key levels determine the fate of the bulls

In the short term, the market will closely monitor the attack and defense of the following key price levels:

  • $120,000: a round number and market psychological resistance, a key battle zone in the short term

  • $122,838: historical high, if broken, it can open up new upward space

  • $117,500: support in a high volume area, a drop below could trigger further correction

Overall, although the technical structure has not been damaged, the bullish momentum is weakening. If BTC cannot hold above $120,000 this week, a short-term pullback to test the $116,800 support zone cannot be ruled out.

Recently, I have organized some key sectors and targets worth focusing on, all of which are tokens that Binance has listed contracts for, making it convenient for direct operation. I have selected only two altcoins from each sector that I believe have the most potential, to avoid too much distraction and the inability to purchase.

Selected sectors & corresponding targets:

These are directions I have carefully selected that have relatively clear logic.

But not all projects can take off immediately; some belong to the 'PVE type,' and the market needs time to accept and understand them.

In this process, if your logic is not strong enough, you can only jump back and forth on the chart, resulting in cutting your own losses.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a sensitive stage of sideways consolidation, with both bulls and bears engaged in a fierce game at the psychological level of $120,000. The technical structure has not been damaged, but the upward momentum has clearly slowed, combined with market expectation divergence, which may lead to directional choices in the short term.

During the consolidation of mainstream coins, funds are expected to further rotate into segmented sectors. Whether it's new public chains, modularization, AI, or targets within the ecosystems of ETH, BTC, Solana, etc., there are relatively clear structures and expectation gaps that are worth following closely.

The key moving forward lies in whether traders can make correct choices in rhythm by combining main line logic + sector rotation + technical signals, rather than falling into a chaotic cycle of chasing highs or cutting losses back and forth.

Don't forget, big market movements are never achieved overnight. Those who truly make money are always the ones who layout in advance and can hold on.