Key Points
Institutional investors are the main catalysts for Bitcoin's recent decline, but the activity of whales and miners remains strongly bullish, providing momentum for a potential rebound.
Bitcoin [BTC] entered a consolidation phase after breaking through the historical high of $123,000, a zone typically characterized by accumulation before major breakouts.
Interestingly, the profit-taking by long-term holders has reached a yearly high. However, other market signals suggest that Bitcoin may continue to rise.
Profit-taking surge—but from the top
According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders (LTH) have begun selling Bitcoin to lock in profits over the past 24 hours.
The Spending Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) confirms this trend, having risen above 2.5, marking the highest level so far this year.
Despite the surge in realized profits, SOPR remains below 4.0. Historically, this threshold marks local peaks for Bitcoin, including in 2021.
Source: CryptoQuant
This indicates that even with Bitcoin trading just $5,000 below its historical peak, long-term holders have not fully exited the market, suggesting further room for upward movement.
However, if LTH continues selling, it may exert additional downward pressure on prices.
As of the time of writing, the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator reading is 1, indicating that long-term holders continue to sell.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin may further decline from the current chart levels.
Other market forces remain bullish
Although many long-term holders are selling Bitcoin, analysis shows that whales and miners holding large amounts of trading liquidity still exhibit bullish behavior.
The whale trading ratio on CryptoQuant is currently 0.42. This suggests that whales are actively trading on exchanges, and the recent rise indicates further bullish momentum.
Source: CryptoQuant
Similarly, the Miner Position Index (MPI) is -0.2 and is on the rise. When the MPI is negative, it indicates that miners are holding Bitcoin.
If this negative trend continues, it indicates that miners remain optimistic about Bitcoin. This behavior may reduce circulating supply and create conditions for supply tightening.
Temporary pullback or deep shift?
Institutional investors have turned bearish. In the past 24 hours, they sold $131.4 million worth of Bitcoin, ending a 12-day streak of net buying.
Nevertheless, their total net holdings still amount to $111.47 billion per CoinGlass.
Source: CoinGlass
This move appears to be a profit-taking event, consistent with the SOPR trend, and may merely represent a pullback rather than a broader sentiment shift.
A renewed surge in institutional buying may indicate that bullish momentum has resumed—potentially pushing Bitcoin out of its current consolidation range.
