CoinVoice has learned that, according to Jin Shi reports, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle expects that the base 'reciprocal' tariff rate in the United States will increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%—a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth.
To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs in its 'initial observations', Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its forecast for 2027 from 2.0% to 2.4%.
Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively raise core prices by 1.7% over 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce this year's GDP growth rate by 1 percentage point, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs has correspondingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. [Original link]