“ETH reaching 3750? Don't chase! Capture the pullback to 3660 golden pit, enter with a 3:1 risk-reward ratio, wait another six months if you miss out!”
Current price 3746, touching the upper Bollinger Band with sell orders at 3.9 times pressure, short-term pullback is needed; below 3660-3625 is a bullish high volume area, if the pullback does not break, consider entering long, stop loss at 3640, targets at 3730/3780, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3:1. Risk: If volume breaks below 3625, the long position is invalidated, switch to short.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchor: POC=2981, +25% from current price, still in the bullish value return phase for the long term.
2. High volume area (HVN):
• 3660-3625 (contract holding -2.5%, volume 1.12 million) — strong buffer zone, consider buying on pullback;
• 3748-3765 (volume 1.08 million) — concentrated selling pressure intraday, if it breaks with volume, it will accelerate.
3. Low volume gap (LVN):
• 3835-3852 (volume < 150,000) — vacuum area after breaking 3765, can quickly surge to 3800;
• 3684-3695 (volume < 280,000) — easy to form a V reversal during pullback.
4. 70% trading area: 2510-3800, current price is close to the upper edge, short-term overbought; combined with MA200 (3484) still upwards, mid-term bullish trend remains unchanged.
Momentum validation
• 3748-3765: UpVol 53% ≈ balanced, lacking main force actively buying, short-term under pressure.
• 3660-3625: UpVol 61%, bullish defense is evident.
• Contract funding rate 0.01%, net outflow of -6.7% for six consecutive days, selling pressure mainly from short-term bulls closing positions, not a trend reversal.
Market cycle
Mid-term bull market third wave extension, short-term entering “high position oscillation - pullback confirmation” phase, similar to the structure of 2024-11, expected to complete pullback and continue upward within 1-2 days.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Directly place a long order at the current price of 3746 on the pullback, stop loss at 3640, targets 3780/3835, risk-reward ratio 2.7.
Conservative: Gradually enter long in the 3660-3625 range, stop loss below 3640 outside HVN, targets 3730/3780, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.
Cautious: Wait for a 1h close back above 3700 and UpVol > 60% before entering, stop loss at 3680, target 3780, risk-reward ratio 4.0.
Risk warning
1. If the 1h close falls below 3625 and contract holdings accelerate to decrease > 1%, long positions must stop loss unconditionally.
2. Macroeconomic risk: Increased volatility before the US CPI announcement, avoid event window.
3. Positioning: Single risk ≤ 1%, total leverage ≤ 3 times, avoid high leverage overnight.
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