In recent days, Bitcoin has been in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the bearish sentiment has become somewhat 'floaty'. Even if BTC pulls back to $106,000 in the short term, it would only trigger about $2.5 billion in liquidations; however, if it rises and breaks through the $130,000 barrier, bearish losses could soar to over $3.4 billion. In other words, once the market suddenly rallies, there may be a group of people who will be 'forced to exit'.

Short-term technical analysis of BTC & ETH: After volatility, a direction choice may emerge.

Currently, Bitcoin is still operating within a converging triangle structure. There has been strong support after each dip, and the price is testing the upper boundary again. The key is whether an effective breakthrough can be achieved - once the resistance line is broken, a rapid rebound is expected in the short term. From the structure and market sentiment, we lean towards a stronger possibility in the future market.

As for Ethereum, a rising wedge structure has formed in the 1-hour cycle. Although there has been a short-term decline, it is still in a downward channel. The movement is inconsistent with BTC, but the overall strength remains. Although shorting is not recommended, if it can pull back to around 3520, it might be a good opportunity to enter long. The pattern is more likely to be a horizontal digestion of selling pressure, and the probability of a direct waterfall decline is low, so it's advisable to wait and see.

Mid-term strategy coin sharing: LTC, DOGE, and capital preferences.

LTC (Litecoin)

I personally believe that the ETF-related news for Litecoin will likely coincide with the timing of XRP. Although it is slightly inferior in terms of capital attention, as one of the 'old mainstream' coins, if there is a favorable ETF release, the expected increase could reach 30%-50%. After allocating BTC, institutions often proportionally allocate ETH, and then select a few well-established mainstream coins as the base, which is a common asset allocation habit among traditional institutions.

DOGE (Dogecoin)

Dogecoin is not only a sentiment barometer for the meme sector but also one of the earliest tokens to 'break out'. Its ETF may just be a matter of time. Many people disdain it, but for external capital, it is the preferred entry point into the meme world. It is large enough, well-known, and highly representative, making it the first stop for institutions and retail investors to 'break the circle'.

The rotation in the bull market is accelerating. Is the third wave of altcoins on the way?

From the data, the current altcoin market has entered the third round of major rising phase - the altcoin index has rebounded to 61, with the previous two occurrences in October 2023 and November 2024. In the short term, the target is for ETH to break through $4,100 and for the altcoin index to reach new highs.

After reaching a temporary peak, altcoins may enter a high volatility washing stage. The market is likely to rotate: BTC, ETH, and altcoins will rise in turn, and timing is crucial. The first step is to eliminate air coins with no fundamentals and free up positions for truly promising coins.

Position allocation suggestions for different amounts of capital:

  • Funds < 5000 USDT 66% allocated to SUI, 34% to EIGEN

  • Funds between 5000 - 20000 USDT half allocated to SOL or TRX, the other half can be chosen between BNB, SUI, EIGEN, LINK, XRP.

  • Funds between 20000 - 50000 USDT 50% allocated to ETH, the rest refer to the previous plan for combination.

The heat of on-chain peel-off has surged: Analysis of the situations of six major project holders.

With the rise of the 'on-chain peel-off' trend, more and more investors are starting to pay attention to whether there is a main force controlling the project and how the position building is going. Here are a few projects that are currently highly discussed in the market.

AURA

After completing position building in June, there has been no significant movement. It is being operated by the professional market maker Cryptonary, and it is currently in the main force entry period, with retail investors yet to fully engage.

ANI

The chip structure is relatively dispersed, mainly held by retail investors, large Fartcoin holders, and wallets associated with Trump. Currently, it is in the stage of washing chips, and some early heavy holders' chips are gradually concentrating.

Wangchai (WZC)

The market is dominated by retail investors, with low participation from large holders. The bonk ecosystem funds have yet to enter, and the support for buying has significantly weakened after the pullback.

Loopy

No obvious manipulation by the main force, but small conspiracy groups are working with large holders of Useless and ANI. The current market structure is a tug-of-war between large holders and retail investors, with no consensus or joint effort to push the market.

GOR

Also lacks main force control, although large holders from the Trump camp have intervened, the activity is relatively low, and the capital momentum is not strong, currently in an observation state.

The market is no longer dominated by a single trend. Although BTC and ETH are still core, the rotation of altcoins and the shift of hotspots are the main themes that current traders should focus on. Learning to dynamically adjust positions, avoid ineffective assets, and closely follow hot coins is key to remaining undefeated in the mid-bull market.

If you are still hesitant, it might be better to organize your holdings and make a round of active adjustments - because the next coin to surge might appear at the moment you reallocate.