$ETH Evening Thoughts:
The past two weeks have seen crazy trading with Ethereum, and despite the madness, when Bitcoin retraced, didn't you obediently follow the retracement?
Why don't you rise on your own? What happened to that bullish momentum from a few days ago? Get your act together! I said Ethereum isn't easy to rise; it only retraced over $200 from the highest point to the lowest, and that’s not enough for a continued retracement.
I wonder if anyone chased the high at 3800; how's the weather at the summit? Stay at the top for a few days; it's hot these days, and going down is risky for heatstroke.
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Talking through the chart: In the hourly chart of Ethereum, this yellow upward trend line has been broken. Without recovering above the trend line, you shouldn't mindlessly go long, because the trend line was originally support, and after breaking, support turns into resistance. That's the logic of support and resistance switching places. Moreover, all the highs and lows in the hourly chart of Ethereum are decreasing; how do you feel about chasing long positions without thought?
Currently, Ethereum is finding support around 3625 and is rebounding upwards. If it can't break through the yellow upward trend line on the rebound, it will likely come down to test the support at 3625 again. If 3625 can't hold and breaks down, then pay attention to the two positions indicated by the right-side yellow arrows!
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If Ethereum breaks through 3685 with volume, you can chase long on the right side; if it breaks down through 3667 with volume, you can chase short on the right side. Pay attention to changes in volume and set a good stop loss.
Ethereum must firmly break through 3715 to look upwards at 3772-3813; if it can’t get above 3715, it’s useless.
On the 4-hour chart, the closing price is below 3677; look down at 3628-3579. If it breaks below 3677, Ethereum will start to retrace.
Continuing to look at the chart: The recent drop in Ethereum just happened to land on the Fibonacci 61.8 position for support. If it can’t stabilize above 38.2 on the rebound, it will come back to test the 61.8 position.
If it retraces again and can’t hold at 61.8, look down at the 1:1 retracement target position of 3476. If panic ensues, I wonder if it will go to the 1.618 position of 3242; I don’t think it will retrace that deeply; at most, it should stop falling around 3476. Mr. Powell will be speaking at 8:30 tonight; everyone should pay attention to short-term volatility. Meeting adjourned.