Cantor Fitzgerald, the financial firm led by the sons of U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, is placing a bold bet: that Donald Trump’s signature tariffs will be overturned in court. The firm is offering to buy the rights to tariff refunds from companies that paid these duties — allowing investors to profit if the tariffs are ultimately struck down.
This means Kyle and Brandon Lutnick, sons of the Commerce Secretary and executives at Cantor, are effectively enabling a financial bet against the very tariff policy their father supports. Secretary Lutnick has been a vocal advocate for Trump’s tariff agenda, claiming it could generate “hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars” and eventually eliminate income taxes for Americans earning under $150,000.
Potential Refunds Could Reach $14 Billion
Under recent court rulings, if Trump’s tariffs are permanently blocked, companies that paid duties beginning April 2 ("Liberation Day") could receive refunds plus interest.
Cantor Fitzgerald saw an opportunity. According to company representatives, the firm is offering 20–30% of the original tariff amount in exchange for the rights to these refunds. In practice, a company that paid $10 million in tariffs could receive $2–3 million upfront — instead of waiting years for the legal process to conclude.
“We currently have the capacity to trade hundreds of millions of dollars in these claims and can expand that capacity if demand increases,” said a Cantor spokesperson.
Some Companies Are Already Selling
Some businesses, facing uncertainty and financial strain, have accepted the offer. Ryan Petersen, CEO of logistics firm Flexport, explained: “Once you file, it can take six to twelve months to get the money back. And when it does arrive, it’s a physical check in the mail.”
Many firms prefer not to deal directly with lengthy court proceedings. Analysts say the arrangement mirrors litigation finance, where companies get upfront cash in exchange for part of their legal settlement.
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Trump’s tariff program collected billions in duties. If a federal appeals court upholds the ruling against those tariffs, nearly $14 billion could be refunded.
Cantor has already executed its first major transaction. “We’ve done a deal worth approximately $10 million in IEEPA-related rights and expect that number to rise sharply in the coming weeks,” a company representative said.
Markets Split on Trump’s Odds
While Cantor is betting on repeal, Polymarket traders are skeptical — only 11% believe Trump will be forced to return the tariffs. Still, interest in this investment product is growing fast.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has distanced himself from the move. Department spokeswoman Kristen Eichamer confirmed he was unaware of the decision and has no involvement or strategic control over Cantor Fitzgerald.
“He has fully complied with the terms of his ethics agreement regarding divestment and recusal and will continue to do so,” she said.
What This Says About Trump’s Inner Circle
Tim Meyer, a professor of international trade law at Duke University, said the deal signals internal skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump’s tariff policies. According to him, Cantor’s bet shows that even figures close to the administration see these duties as legally vulnerable and financially exploitable.
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