When buying an asset for $200 and the price drops by 50%, that price becomes $100. To recover to the original $200, the asset needs to increase by 100% from the new price – it must double. This illustrates a harsh reality of mathematics: price reductions by percentage cannot be remedied by the same rate of increase; superior growth is needed.

For cryptocurrencies, the numbers are even more alarming. A coin dropping from $200 to $40 (an 80% decrease) would need a 400% increase to return to its original price. As a result, many investors fall into a 'loss trap' as the recovery path becomes nearly impossible.

The basic calculations explain why up to 95% of investors in the crypto market are experiencing losses. Most bought in during the hype explosion before the market collapsed, and now only a 'parabolic spike' could save the situation. Even investors who bought during recent corrections can only hope for unusual recovery conditions.

Even with a major global event, such as the return of a reputable political figure, investor confidence is only temporarily uplifted. The cryptocurrency market has almost collapsed even under favorable conditions. If the global economic situation worsens – with recession forecasts and severe liquidity drops – the crypto market may face one of its toughest challenges. The reality shows that, despite a few small signs of recovery, most altcoins have yet to regain more than 15% of their lost value.

Another concerning trend is the group price movement. Many crypto markets have seen coins plummet simultaneously, with hundreds of coins falling in the same chart pattern. This suggests a high level of market manipulation, as institutional investors – expected to bring transparency and stability – instead play a role in market volatility at their whim. The space once considered decentralized now seems to be controlled by a few 'big players' capable of manipulating prices.

Counter Strategy for Investors

With the market context becoming extremely precarious, the optimal strategy for investors is to be cautious and flexible. Some useful advice includes:

  • Take profits early: Even if you've only achieved a small profit, consider selling to preserve your capital.

  • Avoid long-term holding: Don’t hope for a miraculous recovery in the distant future, as the market may continue to experience strong fluctuations.

  • Thorough fundamental research: Investments should be based on solid fundamental factors rather than just trends or crowd psychology.

Conclusion

The cryptocurrency market is currently witnessing strong volatility and undeniable manipulation. From the incredible numbers of percentage increases and decreases to the complex interactions between global economic factors, it's not surprising that up to 95% of investors are experiencing losses. In this context, applying a cautious strategy, taking profits early, and investing based on solid foundations becomes essential.

While the market may still present opportunities for those who buy at the right time, the majority of risks and instability make the recovery journey extremely difficult and unpredictable.