“W Coin 0.096 Startling! Whale 240 million sell order ambush at 0.3, short-term bottom fishing or licking blood on the knife edge? 3 reasons to tell you the answer!”

【One-sentence Overview】

W spot 0.0962 has approached the bottom of the 2-week value area VAL 0.071-0.098 lower edge, RSI 33 oversold, contract OI up 11% but volume-price divergence, a short-term rebound of 8-10% to POC 0.0799 is possible; however, there is a sell wall of 347k at 0.3, if it falls below 0.094, the bullish structure will fail, must set a stop loss at 0.093, risk-reward ratio 2.1:1.

【Key Ranges and Volume Distribution】

1. Value Anchor: POC 0.0799, nearly 249M transactions, Up/Down 60:40, slight bullish advantage.

2. Major HVN: 0.0735-0.0740, 0.0779-0.0785, 0.0799-0.0804, for rebound continuation.

3. Major LVN: 0.0696-0.0703 (lower vacuum), 0.1007-0.1044 (upper vacuum), prices can quickly traverse.

4. 70% Value Area: 0.0710-0.0987; current price 0.0962 is near the upper edge, short-term not overbought, but upward space is suppressed by Bollinger upper band 0.1022.

【Momentum Verification】

• 0.0799 POC: UpVol 60%, buyers dominate.

• 0.0947-0.0957 HVN: UpVol 72%, serves as the first support for the day.

• 0.1007+ LVN: Transaction sharply reduced, if it breaks through 0.1022 with volume, then target 0.11; otherwise, consider it a false breakout.

【Auxiliary Indicators】

• MA200 0.0887, price deviation 8.4%, deviation too large, mean reversion is needed.

• 1h Bollinger Bands: Price running at the lower band 18% position, short-term oversold.

• Contract positions 24h +11.3%, long-short ratio 1.37→1.18, long positions reduced, volume-price divergence.

【Market Cycle】

In the final stages of a mid-term rebound within a long-term bear market (12M contract net outflow -2.1B), short-term oscillating down channel, reversal not yet confirmed.

【Trading Strategy】

Aggressive: Current price 0.0962 light position to try long, stop loss 0.0930 (recent HVN below 0.0947 0.5×ATR), target 0.1020 (Bollinger upper band)/0.1050 (upper LVN), risk-reward ratio 2.1.

Conservative: Wait for a pullback to LVN 0.0940-0.0945 to see a 5m reversal candlestick and UpVol>60% before re-entering, same stop loss.

Cautious: After breaking through 0.1022 and increasing volume (UpVol≥1.5 times the previous 20 bars), pullback to 0.1007-0.1010 to go long, stop loss 0.0994, target 0.1070.

【Risk Warning】

• In the 0.3-0.4 area, a sell wall of 590M is lurking; if the overall market weakens, the price may plummet instantly.

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