A large amount of up to 210.6 million Ripple (XRP) tokens, worth about 738 million USD, has just been transferred between anonymous wallets, immediately igniting a wave of speculation about unusual moves from 'whales'.
This development has sparked a heated debate in the investor community: is this a signal that large investors are quietly accumulating, or just a carefully calculated distribution?
While this massive transaction somewhat strengthens the bullish narrative spreading across the market, its anonymity makes many people wary.
Notably, as XRP's price is currently accumulating just below the critical resistance area, this transfer could serve as a catalyst to boost buying pressure - or conversely, be an early warning of a sudden correction.
Will XRP's uptrend continue?
XRP has just recorded a strong breakout to $3.56, approaching the important resistance area around $3.66. This impressive price increase was triggered after the price broke through the $2.17 threshold - equivalent to a rise of over 60%.
However, warning signals have started to appear: the Stochastic RSI indicator is entering the overbought zone, surpassing the 88 threshold, indicating that the upward momentum is showing signs of weakening.
Notably, the price is hesitating and moving sideways just below the resistance level - a sign that the market is waiting for a decisive push from buyers or sellers.
Although the moving average is still trending upward, if it cannot decisively break the barrier of $3.66, the risk of a short-term correction cannot be ruled out.
In this context, the closing candles in the next few sessions will be a key factor - deciding whether the bulls can maintain control or if market momentum will start to weaken.
What is driving XRP's rise?
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator over the past 90 days shows that buyers are clearly in a dominant position, with the status of 'Taker Buy Dominant' - meaning active buying pressure is completely overshadowing sellers.
This development reflects the increasingly solid confidence of investors in the market's bullish prospects, especially in the context where XRP just recorded an impressive breakout.
Buying pressure is also supported by data from the derivatives market, showing that investors are boldly betting on the scenario of prices continuing to rise.
However, if buying pressure relies too much on leverage or prices cannot break through key resistance areas, the current euphoria could easily reverse, leading to the risk of a widespread sell-off.
The trading volume of XRP derivatives has exploded, increasing sharply by 45.49% to $19.41 billion. Concurrently, the OI index - representing the number of open contracts - also recorded a 4.44% increase, reaching $11.15 billion.
Even more noteworthy is the options market: trading volume skyrocketed by 137.69%, while the open interest (OI) of options contracts also increased by 28.04%.
These figures clearly reflect a strong increase in speculative positions and leveraged trading activities - factors that could drive prices up in the short term, but also pose the risk of a deep correction if the market experiences large-scale liquidations.
Signs of weakness from the network
XRP's on-chain indicators are showing serious signs of weakness, leading many investors to question the sustainability of the current bullish momentum. Specifically, the number of transactions has dropped to only 221,000, while the network growth rate - which reflects the level of attraction for new users - has only reached 1,864 new addresses at the time of writing.
This development shows a clear cooling in network activity, while also shaking confidence in the long-term demand for the asset. Although XRP's price remains high, the decline in actual usage levels indicates that the uptrend is lacking solid support.
If this trend does not reverse soon, XRP may face selling pressure as community participation gradually weakens.
Undervalued or just a bubble effect?
The NVT ratio (network value to transaction volume) of XRP has dropped sharply by 31.53% in just 24 hours, down to 166.98 - a notable decrease.
Typically, a drop in NVT can be understood as a signal that XRP is undervalued, due to a significant increase in trading volume relative to market capitalization. However, one cannot rule out the possibility that this is a consequence of speculative short-term trading activities.
The recent spike in transaction numbers may be the main cause, but if it is not accompanied by a real increase in users, it will raise many concerns.
Therefore, traders need to carefully assess: does this decline in NVT reflect the intrinsic value of the XRP network, or is it just a temporary 'disturbance' due to speculative sentiment - a factor that could heavily influence the long-term trend of this asset.
Conclusion: Strong upward momentum but caution is needed
XRP is showing strong bullish momentum, driven by overwhelming buying pressure and activity in the derivatives market. However, this trend faces three major challenges: strong resistance at the $3.66 mark, the RSI indicator falling into the overbought zone, and signs of weakness from network activity.
Whether XRP will continue to break out or reverse depends greatly on the ability to maintain high trading volume, confirming the breakout of resistance, and the consensus from the broader market trend. Currently, the price is approaching a key threshold where any scenario could unfold.