Weekly & Monthly #BTCvsETH Analysis – Full English Translation
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✅ Weekly Trend
• Bitcoin (BTC):
• Continues bullish breakout, hitting a new all-time high around $123,120, up ~12% from the $109–112k range (cincodias.elpais.com).
• Massive exchange inflows (~81,000 BTC) indicate miner and whale profit-taking, but on-chain and macro indicators remain supportive (okx.com, coinbase.com).
• Ethereum (ETH):
• Institutional and corporate capital continues to flow into wallets and ETF structures; ETH has gained ~131% since April and is at a 7-month high (okx.com, coinbase.com).
• Growth in DeFi participation and TVL surpassing $126B, along with sharp expansion in ETH derivatives.
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🔄 Monthly Trend
• BTC dominance declining; capital rotating into ETH and altcoins (cincodias.elpais.com).
• ETH appears significantly undervalued vs BTC per long-term fundamental indicators—currently diverging ~–2σ from fair value, setting up potential mean reversion (bitwiseinvestments.eu).
• ETH/BTC weekly closes above 50-week moving average (WMA), historically a reliable trend reversal signal (tradingview.com, osl.com).
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🧠 On‑Chain Signals (Condensed)
• All wallet groups, from retail to mega-whales, continue accumulation, reinforcing a long-term bullish narrative (mitrade.com).
• BTC MVRV still below historical cycle tops; HODL ratio >85%—implying supply stress and cycle continuation (coinbase.com).
• Exchange inflows for USDT and ETH suggest derivatives traders positioning for near-term ETH upside (arxiv.org).
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🔮 Forecast Outlook
1. BTC: Triangle formation with support at 116–117k. If that holds, projection to $125k+ likely; otherwise, risk of pullback to ~111k (bitget.com).
2. ETH: Structurally undervalued with potential ETH/BTC breakout. Possible trend toward 0.05–0.07 ETH/BTC ratio, even 0.09 in extreme cases (tradingview.com, bitwiseinvestments.eu).
3. Macro: Capital shift from BTC to ETH and large-cap alts suggests the possibility of a true altseason in the coming weeks.
