The longer the shadow, the more anxious people become; if the key level doesn't break, the volatility will continue!
What's going on with Bitcoin?
Yesterday's Review: It was like playing Tai Chi, both bulls and bears were testing each other at key positions, neither has truly brought the other down. Although the daily line closed with a bullish candle, it had a long 'upper shadow', which is not a good signal - it indicates that every time the price rises, a large wave of sellers decisively dumps their holdings, forcing the price down.
Current Dilemma: Bulls want to push up, but bears are firmly defending at relatively high levels. This situation hasn’t stabilized yet, and in the short term, it may need to 'slip down' to find support.
Viewpoint: This type of 'long upper shadow' repeatedly appearing near key resistance is a typical 'exhaustion signal'. Think back to the situation on July 15, which had a similar pattern followed by a pullback. Don't be fooled by the bullish candle; the upper shadow is the market's true 'attitude'!
Aunt (Strong but with worries?)
Yesterday's Review: The trend was indeed stronger than Bitcoin, breaking through the 3840 pressure in one go, peaking at 3860. But here's the problem: after the breakout, it couldn't hold and dropped back down. More importantly, a 'double top' formed above 3860 (like two small hills), while below it is a 'W-shaped double bottom' with 3710 as the base.
Today's Highlights: If the 'W bottom' pattern is effectively established, there is hope to attack 3860 again today! BUT! If it can't even break through the intermediate area of 3780-3810, then be cautious; it may likely turn around and adjust downward to gather strength (or simply face selling pressure).
Viewpoint: This wave of ETH seems strong, but it's actually playing 'false breakout' at key levels. The double top resistance at 3860 should not be underestimated. 'At the end of a strong bow, it cannot pierce through a thin silk', so be cautious when chasing highs! Keep a close eye on the 3780-3810 'strong-weak dividing line'.
Operational Tips:
Bitcoin:
Short: Wait for a rebound to around 118,000 - 118,300 to consider going short, with a stop loss set at 119,000 (to prevent unexpected breakouts).
Target: First look at 116,800 - 116,300. If it breaks below here, the next target is 115,600 - 115,200.
Long (Alternative): If it approaches 115,600 - 115,200 and stops dropping, consider bottom-fishing.
Aunt:
Long: Wait for a callback to around 3740-3730 to consider going long, with a stop loss set at 3700 (to prevent spikes!).
Target: First look at 3790 - 3810. If it strongly breaks through, then look above 3840.
Short (Alternative): If it can't even break through 3780 - 3810, or if it clearly faces resistance above 3840, consider going short.
Key Insights:
The current market is at a critical decision point, with both bulls and bears testing each other's bottom lines. The upper shadow of Bitcoin is a clear pressure point, while Aunt's 'double top' and 'W bottom' are in conflict. My core strategy is: look for 'high short' opportunities near key resistance levels (especially BTC), and 'low long' opportunities near key support levels (especially ETH). Remember, 'false breakouts' are more common than true breakouts, so near key levels, 'better to wait than to rush'! Position management is always the top priority, don't hold onto losing positions!
Fellow comrades, do you think Bitcoin will break down first today, or will Aunt's 'W bottom' succeed in gaining momentum? Are you more inclined towards high shorts or low longs? Share your views and positions in the comments, and let's dissect the market puzzle together!
If you don't know what an effective breakout is, you can come find me for hands-on guidance. Are you stuck? Don't know when to enter? As I always say, if you're confused and helpless, just comment on my profile picture. I need fans, and you need references.#Strategy增持比特币
