While Bitcoin is stabilizing around $118,713 with low volatility, the altcoin market is becoming more vibrant than ever. Major coins like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) have all recorded increases of 3–7%, giving the impression that 'altcoin season' is beginning to return.
Altcoin Season Index is rising rapidly: A sign of a new wave?
In just a few days, the Altcoin Season Index – a measure of the potential explosive nature of the altcoin market – has risen from 39 to 51, surpassing the neutral mark. Although it has not yet reached the threshold of 75 (considered the start of the official altcoin season), this increase reflects optimistic sentiment and a capital shift from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Ethereum leads the surge with a jump to $3,780, the highest price since early 2022. Notably, Dogecoin has surged sharply by 7% in a day and 30% in a week, indicating speculative buying has returned to the most prominent meme coin in the market.
The CMC Altcoin Index is currently at 57, while Coinglass notes that only a few altcoins are showing exceptional growth. An important threshold is being monitored: if ETH surpasses $4,000, it could be the 'signal' to kick off a widespread price increase across the altcoin market.
According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the current uptrend may be causing the market to enter an overbought state. A swift and strong correction might occur. However, he emphasizes that this will be a healthy correction within a larger uptrend, and the next 6 months could be the 'explosive' phase for altcoins.
Notably, the dominance index of Bitcoin – reflecting the market cap ratio of BTC in the entire market – has dropped by 5.8% over the week, falling below 61%, the lowest level since March. This indicates that investors are pulling out of BTC to seek better yields from altcoins. Ethereum, along with Dogecoin and Solana, are the 'leaders' in this capital shift.
TOTAL2 chart and the potential 8-year breakout
Another notable technical signal comes from analyst Moustache, who stated that the TOTAL2 chart (market cap of all altcoins, excluding BTC) is about to break through an 8-year-long trendline. If the two-week candle closes above this line, it could be a confirming signal for an explosive altcoin season lasting several months.
However, Benjamin Cowen – a market cycle analyst – has a more cautious view. According to him, the ALT/ETH pair has dropped by up to 40% since April, indicating that altcoins are losing momentum compared to Ethereum. Cowen warns that this uptrend could peak by the end of August, before Bitcoin regains its position in September or October.
Cardano (ADA) – The 'spark' for the next altcoin wave?
In the bright green altcoin landscape, Cardano is emerging as a particularly notable name that investors are paying attention to. A reputable analyst in the community has pointed out that ADA's current market structure has many similarities to strong breakout phases in the past – and this is drawing the attention of many.
Currently, ADA is trading around $0.85, and according to technical signals, many important indicators are collectively flashing 'green' – a sign that a clear uptrend is forming.
The interesting point lies in the current risk index, which is at a low 40 – exactly the range that ADA once oscillated in between $0.1 and $0.2 during previous cycles. However, this time the price is at a higher level, reflecting a significantly larger potential bounce if the uptrend is confirmed.
Not stopping there, ADA has just surpassed the important monthly moving average, a technical threshold that throughout history this coin has only passed three times – and all three times preceded strong bullish runs.
What about the MACD indicator on the weekly timeframe? It has just turned 'green' – the last time this happened was at the end of 2020. And if you remember, that was followed by the legendary bull cycle that took ADA to unprecedented heights.
In the short term, ADA is approaching the important resistance zone of $1–1.15 – a level seen as the next major psychological and technical barrier. If ADA can convincingly surpass this price range, with strong buying pressure and steadily increasing trading volume, the next target will be $1.2–1.25 – a place often referred to by analysts as the 'doorway into a bull market.'
This is the boundary between hesitation and confidence, between a short-term pullback and a real trend reversal. If it can be crossed, ADA could open up a completely new chapter – a prolonged bull cycle that could rewrite the entire price action from the beginning of the year until now.
However, as with every instance in the cryptocurrency world, every significant journey always starts from… a single candle. And the question remains: Will the upcoming candle have enough strength to ignite the growth flame for ADA?