Where is the peak of Ethereum? In May 2021, it once reached a historical high of $4891, becoming a benchmark in the crypto market; by mid-2025, when the price repeatedly tests the $4000 mark, everyone is asking: Has the peak of this cycle been reached, or is it still on the way?
1. Macro tailwinds: Supporting mid-term upward movements.
The current macro environment is paving the way for risk assets like Ethereum. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end, and market expectations for interest rate cuts are spreading like a spring tide—liquidity gates are slowly opening, and the crypto market has always been most sensitive to "easing." For Ethereum, this means more institutional capital is confident to enter the market, no longer dominated by retail investors in "small skirmishes."
More critically, Ethereum's "identity" is undergoing transformation. With the advancement of spot ETFs and accelerated compliance arrangements on Wall Street, it has long since jumped out of the realm of "concept hype" and has become a "digital infrastructure" on institutional asset allocation lists. In the eyes of traditional capital, ETH is no longer just a "speculative asset" but akin to "digital oil"—its on-chain transactions worth billions daily and the ecosystem maintained by millions of developers constitute an irreplaceable network effect. This transition from "speculative asset" to "allocated asset" is support that was never seen during the bull market of 2021.
2. The technical entanglement: Why has $4000 become a "hard nut to crack"?
On the technical charts, Ethereum has recently been fluctuating in the $3900-$4000 range, with each surge accompanied by a sharp increase in trading volume—this is clearly a signal of significant profit-taking occurring here. But does this mean the "peak has arrived"? Not necessarily.
Compared to the peak in 2021, the "capital structure" of this market cycle is distinctly different. The surge back then was driven by retail sentiment, and once panic spread, it plummeted; now, the main drivers of price are ecological accumulation (Layer2 trading volume accounts for over 40%) and institutional buying (ETF net inflows breaking $1 billion in a single week). In simple terms, the current rise is supported by "fundamentals" rather than being a castle in the air. The repeated testing of $4000 resembles more of a "building momentum" rather than a "peak"—like multiple probes before a siege, the more frequent the assaults, the higher the probability of a breakthrough.
3. The unfinished narrative: Ecological dividends have only just begun.
The story of Ethereum is far from reaching its conclusion.
Layer2 is transforming from a "supplementary role" to a "main battlefield": The daily active users of Arbitrum and Optimism have surpassed those on the mainnet, diverting pressure from the mainnet like capillaries while also providing liquidity back to the mainnet through cross-chain bridges. This ecological synergy of "mainnet + Layer2" was merely a concept in 2021; the popularization of Account Abstraction has made private key management and Gas fee payments as simple as using WeChat Pay, fundamentally addressing the longstanding issue of "poor user experience"; even the integration of AI and blockchain sees most projects choosing to root themselves in Ethereum—because it has the richest on-chain data and tools.
What is even more exciting is the technological upgrades: From the end of 2025 to 2026, proposals like EIP-7682 will further optimize mainnet efficiency and reduce verification costs, all of which are "certain benefits" outlined in the white paper. It's too early to talk about "peaks" while the narrative is still being realized.
4. Concerns remain: Where are the risks hidden?
Of course, the road up is never without hidden reefs.
The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" continues to strengthen, somewhat diverting funding attention from ETH; as some Layer2 ecosystems grow, they begin to compete for mainnet gas fee revenues, which may weaken the "profitability" of the mainnet in the long run; broader macro black swan events—such as sudden geopolitical conflicts or tightened regulatory policies—could disrupt the upward momentum.
Moreover, whether Ethereum can truly shed the label of "high volatility risk asset" and become the "digital bond" in the eyes of institutions (relying on staking yields and network fees to generate stable cash flow) still needs time to validate. If staking yields remain hovering around 4%-5% while price fluctuations far exceed those of traditional bonds, institutional allocation enthusiasm may cool.
Conclusion: $4000 is a battlefield, not a finish line.
Currently, Ethereum is standing at a critical "transfer station":
In the short term, $4000 remains a strong resistance level—frequent testing is not a bad thing; each assault is consuming profit-taking, accumulating strength for the eventual breakthrough.
In the medium term (6-12 months), if the spot ETF is officially launched, liquidity may see an explosion, targeting $4500-$5200, and it may even test the historical peak from 2021.
As for the long-term "peak," it may not be a specific price at all, but rather when the Ethereum ecosystem truly permeates the real economy—such as becoming the underlying protocol for cross-border payments or the trust infrastructure for AI applications—its value will no longer be determined by K-lines but defined by the "daily dependence" of global users.
So, don’t get tangled up in the current $4000. The peak of Ethereum is not in today’s K-lines, but in the ecological story that has yet to be written.
